№ 01Michael McGreevy's 5.59 xERA over 89.3 innings undercuts his 3.12 ERA, a 2.47-run gap flagging heavy regression in his run prevention
№ 02Reynaldo López counters with a 4.87 xERA across 46.7 innings against a 3.47 ERA, another 1.40-run gap pointing the same direction
№ 03López's last five starts trend the wrong way: 0.93 ERA in the earlier outings against 11.25 ERA in the most recent ones
№ 04Truist Park's 1050 feet of elevation and a 91°F first pitch both push the ball further, with Jim Wolf's games averaging 9.6 combined runs
№ 05Both offenses running ice-cold at 1.8 runs per game over the last 7 days is the honest risk baked into this over
§ 01The analysis
Start with the away starter. Michael McGreevy is carrying a 3.12 ERA that his underlying work does not back up, with a 5.59 xERA across 89.3 innings and a 4.41 FIP saying the run prevention is on borrowed time. His swinging-strike and K stuff is trending down, and the 16.7% strikeout rate leaves plenty of contact in play. Reynaldo López is not the stopper on the other side either: 4.87 xERA over 46.7 innings against a 3.47 ERA, a 1.40-run gap, a 19.3% K rate, and a last-five-start line that has gone from 0.93 ERA in the earlier outings to 11.25 ERA in the most recent ones. Both starters lean on fastballs (López 54.0%, McGreevy 53.2%) into lineups posting .349 and .348 xwOBA against the pitch. The away lineup has been trending up against right-handed pitching across 640 plate appearances. Truist Park sits at 1050 feet with a 91°F first pitch, and Jim Wolf's games this season have averaged 9.6 combined runs. Raisel Iglesias's 2.49 xERA above a 1.32 ERA suggests his suppression has been better than his true ability.
§ 02The call
The risk is real and it lives in the last week. Both offenses have been ice-cold over the last 7 days at 1.8 runs per game, the home lineup has struggled against right-handed pitching across 475 plate appearances this season, and the home side is without Kyle Farmer and Ronald Acuña Jr. Iglesias at a 1.32 ERA remains a stopper in the ninth if the game gets there. The starter numbers, the park at 1050 feet, and 91°F at first pitch still point the total north of 9.
Final resultLOSSOver 9 -110 · -110 Graded Jul 2, 2026