Key points — 5
- № 01Kyle Harrison has been dominant for Milwaukee, a 1.77 ERA across 45.7 innings with a 31.3% strikeout rate and a sparkling 0.96 ERA over his last 5 starts. He's a lefty, and the Cardinals grade at just +20 vs LHP across 253 PA, notably worse than their +37 vs righties.
- № 02Michael McGreevy counters with a 2.40 ERA across 56.3 innings, but the underlying numbers scream regression, his profile is toward-worse with a 4.04 FIP and a 5.86 xERA, a large gap. His last 5 ERA sits at 1.55 but the trend is worsening, newer 2 starts at 3.27 vs older 2 at 0.75.
- № 03McGreevy doesn't miss bats, 6.83 K/9 over his last 5 and a 7.69% swinging-strike rate. Milwaukee's lineup grades at +28 vs RHP across 620 PA, and Brice Turang in particular has crushed righties to a 1.032 OPS across 152 PA. William Contreras (.810 OPS vs RHP) and Jake Bauers (.854 OPS) round out a contact-friendly platoon spot.
- № 04Weather and park lean Over-friendly. Wind blowing out to left at 6.7 mph in 83°F air, with American Family Field's HR factor of 1.10 for righties, and Milwaukee's lineup is RHB-heavy against this lefty. Roof open, no precip at 0%.
- № 05Bullpens are reasonably rested, Milwaukee ranks 24 in usage, St. Louis 20, but the high-leverage arms aren't airtight. Trevor Megill carries a 5.29 season ERA heading Milwaukee's ninth-inning committee, and St. Louis closer Riley O'Brien's 2.96 ERA masks a 5.40 mark over his last 10.