№ 01Christian Scott's 4.13 xERA sits well above his 2.50 ERA, suggesting his contact-quality results have outrun what his peripherals would project.
№ 02Scott has issued 18 walks across 36.0 innings for a 4.5 BB/9, which puts him near the bottom of the league for command and creates extra baserunner traffic.
№ 03If the game tips into the late innings, Devin Williams has carried a 5.57 ERA across 21.0 relief innings, meaning runs have been available against the back end.
№ 04The counter is loud — Gorman is hitting .197 with a 0.61 OPS on the season and has just 2 hits in 27 at-bats over his last 10 games.
№ 05Scott has also been trending up, with a 0.84 ERA in his two most recent starts and a 2.34 FIP across his last 5 outings spanning 25.0 innings.
§ 01The analysis
This is a price-driven look more than a form-driven one. Gorman is in a clear cold stretch, hitting .197 with a 0.61 OPS over 198 at-bats and just 2 hits in his last 27 at-bats, and his platoon split against right-handers (0.62 OPS, .201 average across 188 plate appearances) is not flattering against a righty starter. Christian Scott has also been pitching like an ace recently, with a 0.84 ERA across his last two starts and a 2.34 FIP over his last 5. The case for the over leans on what is underneath Scott's surface line. His 4.13 xERA sits well above his 2.50 ERA, and 18 walks in 36.0 innings (4.5 BB/9) reflects shaky command that tends to surface eventually. Scott has held lefties to a .158 average across 95 matchups, so the Gorman-specific platoon edge is real, but the walk rate keeps the at-bat live. If the game stays close, Devin Williams' 5.57 ERA over 21.0 relief innings gives the Cardinals a path to extra at-bats late at a 0.96 run environment in Citi Field.
§ 02The call
The market is pricing Gorman over 0.5 hits at -113, an implied probability of 53.1%. Our model lands at 57.5%, leaving a 4.5% edge. That edge is built less on Gorman's form, which is bad, and more on Scott's peripherals — the xERA gap, the 4.5 BB/9 — pointing to a pitcher who has outrun his contact profile and gives up free baserunners. The recent trend in Scott's line is a legitimate counter and we are not ignoring it. At this price, the number still has value. Take Gorman over 0.5 hits.
Final resultLOSSNolan Gorman OVER 0.5 Hits · -113 Graded Jun 11, 2026