№ 01Cedric Mullins has 9 hits in 30 at-bats over his last 10 games, showing a swing that has come back to life recently.
№ 02Eric Lauer carries a 5.47 ERA across 52.7 innings this season, and his 5.23 xERA suggests his contact-quality results have outrun his peripherals.
№ 03Lauer's FIP sits at 6.46, and over his most recent 5 starts he has run a 5.66 FIP across 25.0 innings.
№ 04Dodger Stadium carries a 1.19 home run factor for left-handed hitters this season, giving Mullins a clear extra-base avenue if he squares one up.
№ 05The main counter is Mullins' .201 season average and 0.63 OPS in 65 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, which is why the price sits at +188.
§ 01The analysis
This bet leans on a pitcher whose results say he is in trouble and a hitter whose recent at-bats look better than his season line. Eric Lauer's 5.47 ERA across 52.7 innings is already poor, and his 5.23 xERA plus 6.46 FIP say his peripherals are even uglier than the surface. Over his last 5 starts he has posted a 5.66 FIP across 25.0 innings, so the trend is not turning around. Mullins comes in with 9 hits in 30 at-bats over his last 10 games, and Dodger Stadium's 1.19 home run factor for left-handed hitters gives him a real extra-base avenue against a lefty who lives in the zone. The counter is real. Mullins is hitting .201 on the season with a 0.61 OPS, and his 0.63 OPS in 65 plate appearances against left-handed pitching is a clear concern. He also carries a .279 xwOBA against fastballs and Lauer throws 63.1% fastballs. At +188, the matchup edge and park profile are worth the swing despite the platoon profile.
§ 02The call
Take Mullins over 1.5 total bases at +188. The reason to be on this side is Lauer. A 5.47 ERA, a 5.23 xERA, and a 6.46 FIP all point the same direction, and his last 5 starts at a 5.66 FIP confirm there is no hidden form here. Mullins is swinging it better lately at 9 hits in his last 30 at-bats, and Dodger Stadium's 1.19 home run factor for left-handed hitters gives a double or homer a real path. The price pays for the platoon risk.
Final resultLOSSCedric Mullins OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +188 Graded Jun 16, 2026