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Baseball · MLB ·

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Cedric Mullins OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Line
+190
Bet type
Prop
Status
LOSS
CLV
+3.6%
Key points · 5
  1. № 01Cedric Mullins is 3-for-6 with 2 home runs in 6 career plate appearances against Shohei Ohtani, the only direct sample we have of this matchup.
  2. № 02Shohei Ohtani's xERA of 2.61 sits well above his 1.06 ERA, signaling the contact quality he has allowed points to more damage than the surface line suggests.
  3. № 03Dodger Stadium carries a 1.19 home run factor for left-handed hitters this season, giving Cedric Mullins a friendlier park for the extra-base outcome the over needs.
  4. № 04Over Shohei Ohtani's last 5 starts the ERA has climbed to 2.13 in the most recent two versus 0.00 in the older two, with a -34 composite form score reflecting falling swinging-strike and K rates.
  5. № 05Cedric Mullins has 8 hits in 30 at-bats over his last 10 games, a workable recent base rate at a +190 price that only needs one extra-base hit or two singles.

§ 01The analysis

This is a price play built on a specific matchup history and a pitcher whose results have outrun his peripherals. Cedric Mullins owns a 3-for-6 line with 2 home runs against Shohei Ohtani across 6 career plate appearances, the only direct data point we have. Shohei Ohtani's 1.06 ERA over 67.7 innings is the headline, but his xERA of 2.61 and FIP of 2.45 say the contact quality has been better than the runs allowed. His composite form score is -34, and across his last 5 starts the ERA has trended from 0.00 in the older two outings to 2.13 in the most recent two. Dodger Stadium's 1.19 home run factor for left-handed hitters helps Cedric Mullins access total bases in bunches rather than needing two knocks. The counter is real. Cedric Mullins is hitting .198 on the season and .180 against right-handed pitching, and Shohei Ohtani has held lefties to a .155 average across 142 matchups. At +190, the head-to-head sample, the regression signals, and the park are doing the lifting against a hitter profile that is admittedly cold.

§ 02The call

Take Cedric Mullins over 1.5 total bases at +190. The pick is anchored on the only sample we have of this matchup — 3-for-6 with 2 home runs in 6 career plate appearances against Shohei Ohtani — supported by an xERA of 2.61 running well clear of the 1.06 ERA and a -34 form score that flags slipping swing-and-miss. Dodger Stadium's 1.19 home run factor for left-handed bats turns one barrel into the bet cashing on a single swing. The season line is ugly, but the price already reflects that. The number is the right side.

Final resultLOSSCedric Mullins OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +190
Graded Jun 17, 2026

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