№ 01Ohtani is hitting .298 with a 0.96 OPS across 252 at-bats this season, and he has 12 hits in 37 at-bats over his last 10 games.
№ 02Drew Rasmussen throws 82.3% fastballs, and Ohtani carries a .493 xwOBA against fastballs across 163 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Against right-handed pitchers' four-seamers over the last 30 days, Ohtani holds a 30.8% barrel rate across 19 plate appearances.
№ 04Dodger Stadium carries a 1.19 home run factor for left-handed hitters this season, which favors Ohtani's pull-side power profile.
№ 05Rasmussen's 2.71 ERA and 1.88 FIP over his last 5 starts is the real counter here, but his fastball-heavy mix is exactly what Ohtani punishes.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Ohtani over 1.5 total bases starts with the bat. He is hitting .298 on the season with a 0.96 OPS across 252 at-bats, and the recent form lines up with 12 hits in 37 at-bats over his last 10 games. Against right-handed pitching specifically, he is at .295 with a 0.97 OPS in 225 plate appearances. The pitch-mix matchup is the real driver. Drew Rasmussen throws fastballs 82.3% of the time, and Ohtani has a .493 xwOBA against fastballs across 163 plate appearances this season, plus a 30.8% barrel rate against right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days and a .600 slug against right-handed sinkers. Dodger Stadium's 1.19 HR factor for lefties adds to the upside. The counter is real: Rasmussen has a 2.71 ERA on the season and a 1.88 FIP over his last 5 starts, and Ohtani is 0-for-5 in 6 career plate appearances against him. But the small sample doesn't outweigh what the pitch-level data says.
§ 02The call
Ohtani over 1.5 total bases at +105 is the right side. The matchup is built on a pitcher who lives at 82.3% fastballs running into a hitter with a .493 xwOBA on fastballs and a 30.8% barrel rate against right-handed four-seamers over the past month. Add a .295 average and 0.97 OPS against righties this season, plus a 1.19 home run factor at Dodger Stadium for lefties, and you have a clear path to two bases. Rasmussen's recent FIP is a fair counter, not a reason to pass.
Final resultWINShohei Ohtani OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +105 Graded Jun 17, 2026