№ 01Williamson is hitting .333 off right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days across 11 plate appearances, whiffing on just 6% of those pitches.
№ 02Kevin Gausman has posted a 5.19 FIP across 25.3 innings over his most recent 5 starts, well above his 3.63 season FIP.
№ 03Williamson has 9 hits in 32 at-bats over his last 10 games, a stretch that has him trending in the right direction at the plate.
№ 04Gausman's season strikeout rate sits at 23.8%, and his 3.88 xERA across 112.3 innings offers a lower ceiling than his recent form suggests.
№ 05Rogers Centre grades out as a neutral 1.00 run environment, and Williamson's team has taken 4 of the last 5 meetings with this opponent.
§ 01The analysis
The core of this Williamson over 0.5 hits ticket at -144 rests on how he's handled right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days: a .333 average across 11 plate appearances with just a 6% whiff rate on the pitch. That plays directly into what Kevin Gausman has been over his most recent 5 starts, a 5.19 FIP through 25.3 innings that sits well clear of his 3.63 season FIP and 3.88 xERA across 112.3 innings. Williamson himself has been finding the barrel lately, 9 hits in 32 at-bats over his last 10 games, which lifts a season line of .244 across 209 at-bats and a .259 mark against right-handed pitching. His splits against righties aren't loud (a 0.66 OPS in 132 plate appearances.238 versus their sliders in 43 trips), but the four-seam matchup is where this bet lives. Rogers Centre plays to a 1.00 run environment, and Williamson's team enters having won 4 of the last 5 head-to-heads. Gausman still misses bats at a 23.8% clip on the year, so the pitch mix has to cooperate.
§ 02The call
The risk is straightforward. Gausman's rough 5-start stretch has been trending the right way, with his most recent outings clearly sharper than the earlier ones, so Williamson may not get the same version that inflated the recent FIP. And if Toronto turns to Louis Varland late, his 1.08 ERA across 50.0 relief innings is one of the more punishing closer profiles in the league to face for a final at-bat. The bet leans on Williamson banking a knock before that back end of the game becomes a factor.
Final resultWINBen Williamson OVER 0.5 Hits · -144 Graded Jul 22, 2026