№ 01The home offense carries a 7-day form score of 44 and is averaging 5.2 runs per game over that window, giving this total a real engine.
№ 02The away bullpen has thrown 246 pitches over the last three days and closer Jacob Latz is unavailable tonight, thinning the late-game options.
№ 03Home closer Pete Fairbanks owns a 6.14 ERA, meaning late-inning runs are very much on the menu if this game stays tight.
№ 04Sandy Alcántara's 18.7% strikeout rate leaves plenty of contact in play, and his season ERA of 4.18 across 103.3 innings reflects that profile.
№ 05The away offense is the main brake on this number, carrying a -24 7-day form score and a -25 form mark against right-handed pitching across 733 plate appearances.
§ 01The analysis
The path to the over runs through both bullpens and the home lineup. The home offense has been the more functional side lately, with a 44 form score over the last week and 5.2 runs per game across that stretch. The away side has the bigger problem behind its starter: 246 bullpen pitches in three days plus closer Jacob Latz unavailable tonight. Latz's xERA of 2.28 sits well above his 1.46 ERA anyway, so even his presence wouldn't be the wall the surface number suggests. On the other side, Pete Fairbanks and his 6.14 ERA are the home team's top leverage arm, which keeps late innings live. Sandy Alcántara's 18.7% strikeout rate and 4.18 ERA over 103.3 innings put plenty of balls in play. The counter is real and worth naming: Alcántara has trimmed to a 3.21 ERA over his two most recent starts versus 7.82 in the older two, and the away lineup has been cold with a -24 7-day form and a -25 mark versus right-handers. LoanDepot's 1.02 run environment is roughly neutral, not a suppressor.
§ 02The call
The lean is over 8 at -117. The combination of a home offense averaging 5.2 runs over the last week, a road bullpen at 246 pitches in three days, and no Latz to close gives this total multiple credible scoring paths. Add Fairbanks and his 6.14 ERA as the home team's late-inning answer, plus an Alcántara profile that allows contact, and the structure of the game leans toward runs. The away offense's cold form is the real counter, but the park is neutral and the bullpen edge favors going over.
Final resultLOSSOver 8 -117 · -117 Graded Jun 24, 2026