Key points — 5
- № 01Tonight's pitching matchup pairs St. Louis right-hander Michael McGreevy against Texas right-hander Jacob deGrom at Busch Stadium. McGreevy carries a 2.98 season ERA across 60.3 innings, though the peripherals are uglier, a 4.14 FIP and a 5.62 xERA suggest he's been pitching over his head and is due for runs to climb.
- № 02deGrom owns the better strikeout profile, sitting at a 29.05% strikeout rate with a 3.77 ERA over 59.7 innings, and his FIP of 4.19 and 3.86 xERA back the surface line. Both arms have wobbled recently, but deGrom's profile is the steadier of the two.
- № 03The offensive environment is muted. St. Louis has scored just 1.8 runs per game over the past week with a slumping -48 form score, while Texas grades at -34. Busch Stadium suppresses power with a 0.87 HR factor, among the more pitcher-friendly parks in the league.
- № 04Weather reinforces the Under. Despite an 81°F reading, the wind is blowing in toward home at 10.7 mph, knocking down fly balls. There's also a 34% chance of light rain at first pitch, not a postponement threat, but a damp-ball factor that rarely helps hitters.
- № 05Both bullpens have quality late-inning options. St. Louis closer Riley O'Brien holds a 3.20 season ERA and threw 0 pitches yesterday. Texas closer Jacob Latz is sharper still at 2.08, and the Rangers' pen ranks 8 in lightest usage, both sides can shorten the game.