№ 01Kevin Gausman's last five starts show the arrow pointing down, with a 4.09 ERA in the earlier outings ballooning to an 8.00 ERA in the most recent ones.
№ 02MacKenzie Gore has run a 3.07 FIP across 29.0 innings over his last five, while Gausman's recent-five FIP sits at 4.66 across 25.0 innings.
№ 03The opposing lineup has been cooling off against left-handed pitching across 252 plate appearances, with Addison Barger and Lenyn Sosa both on the injured list.
№ 04Jacob Latz anchors the back end with a 1.46 ERA over 37.0 relief innings and 14 saves, while Louis Varland's 1.96 xERA hints his 0.84 ERA has outrun the contact.
№ 05The opposing bullpen has thrown 211 pitches over the last three days, a heavier-than-typical workload coming into this one.
§ 01The analysis
The clearest read here is Gausman's direction. Across his last five starts his ERA has jumped from 4.09 in the earlier outings to 8.00 in the most recent ones, and the peripheral underneath that stretch is a 4.66 FIP over 25.0 innings. Gore is trending the other way, posting a 3.07 FIP across 29.0 innings in his last five while running a 25.1% strikeout rate on the season. The lineup he's facing offers a soft landing too, cooling against left-handed pitching across 252 plate appearances and missing Addison Barger and Lenyn Sosa on the injured list. The bullpen edge follows the same path. Jacob Latz carries a 1.46 ERA across 37.0 relief innings with 14 saves attached to his name. Louis Varland's 0.84 ERA looks airtight, but his 1.96 xERA suggests the contact quality has been better than the surface number. The opposing pen has also thrown 211 pitches over the last three days, heavier than typical usage. The honest counter: Gausman's full-season profile is strong, a 3.49 xERA and a 3.38 FIP over 89.0 innings.
§ 02The call
Back Gore at +125. Gausman's season-long work is the real risk, a 3.49 xERA and a 3.38 FIP over 89.0 innings, and our own pen ranks 28 of 30 in 3-day relief pitch volume after 267 pitches, so the late innings aren't spotless. But the recent-form gap between starters, the lineup's slide versus lefties over 252 plate appearances, the missing bats, and an opposing bullpen already 211 pitches deep over three days all point the same way at a plus price.
Final resultWINTexas Rangers ML +125 · +125 Graded Jun 26, 2026