№ 01MacKenzie Gore has walked 37 batters across 84.0 innings, a 4.0 BB/9 that puts him in the bottom tier of the league for command
№ 02Davis Schneider is 3-for-7 (.429) in 8 career plate appearances against MacKenzie Gore with 1 home run, the cleanest matchup history available
№ 03The away bullpen has thrown 267 pitches over the last three days, heavier usage than typical if Toronto pushes Gore out early
№ 04Schneider has 6 hits in 25 at-bats over his last 10 games, a steadier recent stretch than his full-season line suggests
№ 05The honest counter: Schneider is hitting .133 against left-handed pitching with a 0.57 OPS across 58 plate appearances this season
§ 01The analysis
Start with the man on the mound. MacKenzie Gore has walked 37 batters across 84.0 innings, a 4.0 BB/9 that puts him in the bottom tier of the league for command, and free traffic plus deep counts is the friendliest backdrop a hitter can ask for on a single-hit prop. The personal book helps too: Schneider is 3-for-7 (.429) in 8 career plate appearances against Gore with 1 home run already logged. Recent form has been firmer than the season number, with 6 hits in 25 at-bats over his last 10 games, and the away bullpen has piled up 267 pitches across the last three days, which thins the cover if Gore gets chased. The risk is real and worth saying out loud. Schneider is hitting .158 with a 0.60 OPS across 95 at-bats on the year, and the split against lefties is uglier at .133 with a 0.57 OPS over 58 plate appearances. Gore's peripherals support him too, a 3.47 FIP, a 3.07 FIP over his last 5 starts across 29.0 innings, and a .189 average allowed to right-handed batters across 275 matchups.
§ 02The call
This bet leans on command and matchup history. Gore's 4.0 BB/9 over 84.0 innings and Schneider's 3-for-7 personal line are the levers, and an away pen sitting on 267 pitches in three days is a useful tailwind if the starter wobbles. The split numbers are the cost of admission, a .133 mark against lefties and a 0.57 OPS in 58 plate appearances, with Jacob Latz and his 1.46 ERA across 37.0 relief innings waiting late. At +107, the walks, the history, and a recent 6-for-25 stretch carry the ticket.
Final resultLOSSDavis Schneider OVER 0.5 Hits · +107 Graded Jun 26, 2026