№ 01Victor Robles is hitting .300 against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days across 12 plate appearances, whiffing on just 13% of the pitches he sees.
№ 02Trey Yesavage has walked 30 batters across 67.3 innings, a 4.0 BB/9 that lands him in the bottom tier of the league for command.
№ 03Over his most recent 5 starts, Yesavage carries a 5.51 FIP across 30.3 innings, well above his 3.78 season FIP.
№ 04Yesavage's swinging-strike and strikeout rates have both slipped below his own season baseline, with the K rate sitting at 22.3%.
№ 05The honest counter: Yesavage owns a 3.18 xERA on the year and has held right-handed hitters to a .146 average across 123 matchups.
§ 01The analysis
Robles has a specific edge to lean on here. Against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days he is hitting .300 across 12 plate appearances with just a 13% whiff rate, and Yesavage is the sort of righty who has been leaking contact lately. Yesavage has walked 30 hitters in 67.3 innings, a 4.0 BB/9 that lives in the bottom tier of the league for command, and his most recent 5 starts have produced a 5.51 FIP over 30.3 innings against a 3.78 season FIP. His swinging-strike and K rates have both slipped under his own baseline, with the season strikeout rate at 22.3%. The case against is honest. Yesavage still carries a 3.18 xERA across 67.3 innings and has held right-handed batters to a .146 average over 123 matchups. His last 5 starts have trended sharper outing to outing. Robles brings his own baggage: a .154 mark with a 37% whiff rate on right-handed sliders over 15 plate appearances the last 30 days, a 0.55 OPS in 51 trips against righties this year.239 against right-handed pitching overall, and 5 hits in his last 24 at-bats. T-Mobile Park sits at a 0.83 run environment, with Louis Varland (0.96 ERA, 47.0 innings) waiting late.
§ 02The call
The read is narrow but clean. Robles has a live sub-sample against the exact pitch shape a shaky command righty tends to lean on, and Yesavage's recent 5.51 FIP over 30.3 innings and 4.0 BB/9 point to more free traffic and mistakes than his headline 3.18 xERA suggests. The risks are stacked and real, from the .146 average he has allowed to right-handed batters to a 0.83 run park and Louis Varland's 0.96 ERA behind him, but at -112 the price fits the swing.
Final resultWINVictor Robles OVER 0.5 Hits · -112 Graded Jul 5, 2026