№ 01Olson's .81 OPS across 206 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season is the anchor of this ticket, and Griffin is a lefty.
№ 02Griffin leans on his fastball 64.9% of the time, and Olson has punished heaters for a .391 xwOBA across 285 plate appearances this year.
№ 03Truist Park plays as a 1.10 home run factor for left-handed hitters this season, with 1050 feet of elevation thinning the air further.
№ 04First-pitch temperature of 86°F stacks another carry tailwind onto a park that already grades as a friendly launching pad for lefty bats.
№ 05The risk: Griffin has held left-handed hitters to a .138 average across 130 matchups and posted a 2.49 FIP over his last 32.7 innings.
§ 01The analysis
Olson brings a .81 OPS across 206 plate appearances against left-handed pitching into a matchup with a lefty who lives in the zone Olson hits hardest. Griffin throws 64.9% fastballs, and Olson is running a .391 xwOBA against fastballs across 285 plate appearances this season, so the shape of this start funnels pitches directly into his damage zone. His full-season .262 mark against lefties backs up the OPS, and his overall .261 average with a .86 OPS across 425 at-bats says the bat is where it needs to be for a two-base night. The venue adds real weight. Truist Park carries a 1.10 home run factor for left-handed hitters this season, sits at 1050 feet of elevation where the thinner air carries the ball materially further, and first pitch is scheduled for 86°F, another push on the carry. Griffin's underlying numbers also suggest regression is coming, with a 3.91 xERA across 124.0 innings this season pointing to run prevention that has been outrunning his contact quality. Griffin's 3.74 FIP and 22.7% strikeout rate leave enough room for Olson to find the second base he needs.
§ 02The call
The honest counter is that Griffin has been genuinely tough on this side of the plate, holding left-handed hitters to a .138 average across 130 matchups and running a 2.49 FIP across 32.7 innings over his most recent five starts. Olson's own recent form is quieter too, with 8 hits in 39 at-bats over his last 10 games and a 1-for-6 line in 6 career plate appearances against Griffin. Even accounting for that, the fastball-heavy usage, the lefty park factor and the heat give Olson enough paths to two bases at +120.
Final resultWINMatt Olson OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +120 Graded Aug 1, 2026