№ 01Mikolas has flipped the script over his last 5 starts, trimming a 15.95 ERA in the earlier outings down to 3.12 in the most recent ones.
№ 02Opposing closer Aroldis Chapman is unavailable tonight after recent usage, pulling the 2.19 ERA, 16-save arm out of the late-inning equation.
№ 03Mikolas leans on 41.8% breaking pitches and the opposing lineup carries just a .263 xwOBA against breaking stuff across 827 plate appearances this year.
№ 04Ranger Suarez throws 66.8% fastballs into a lineup posting a .356 xwOBA against fastballs over 1742 plate appearances, and our offense ranks 4 of 30 in OPS at 0.74.
№ 05The opposing lineup has been cooling against right-handed pitching across 694 plate appearances, and they're without Isiah Kiner-Falefa (D10) and Marcelo Mayer (D10).
§ 01The analysis
The case for the dog starts with the shape of Mikolas's recent work. His earliest starts in the last-5 sample carried a 15.95 ERA, the most recent stretch has come in at 3.12, and that's the version showing up at Fenway. The arsenal fit helps him too: 41.8% breaking pitches into a lineup that has managed just a .263 xwOBA against breaking stuff over 827 plate appearances. The other half of the equation cuts the same way. Ranger Suarez lives at 66.8% fastballs, and this offense, which ranks 4 of 30 in OPS at 0.74, has hammered fastballs to a .356 xwOBA across 1742 plate appearances. The opposing lineup has been quieter against right-handed pitching across 694 plate appearances this season and is down Isiah Kiner-Falefa (D10) and Marcelo Mayer (D10). Late-inning math tilts further with Aroldis Chapman unavailable after recent usage, taking a 2.19 ERA and 16 saves out of the back end. Our catcher chips in 0.9 extra called strikes per 100 taken pitches versus baseline, a small framing edge that compounds in a tight game.
§ 02The call
The risk is real and it's mostly named Ranger Suarez. His 3.23 xERA and 2.60 FIP across 82.7 innings tower over Mikolas's 4.75 xERA and 5.31 FIP, and over his last 5 starts Suarez has run a 1.38 FIP across 29.0 innings with the most recent ones at a 0.71 ERA. The home side is 7-3 over its last 10 on a 4-game winning streak, their staff sits 5 of 30 in ERA at 3.70, and they've taken 4 of the last 5 head-to-head. At +152 the matchup edges still play.
Final resultLOSSWashington Nationals ML +152 · +152 Graded Jun 30, 2026