Free tool
Pick'em EV calculator: Power and Flex entries, priced
Choose an entry type, enter your win probability for each leg, and the calculator returns the expected return per dollar, the probability of every payout tier, the breakeven per-leg rate, and the fair multiplier your card would deserve with no house margin.
Your estimated chance each pick hits. Convert a sportsbook price with the implied probability tool.
+5.0% edge at these probabilities
on a $20.00 entry
pays $200.00
pays $40.00
pays $8.00
tiers paying more than 1x
your average leg: 55.0%
what these probabilities are worth with no margin
What the multiplier hides
A pick'em multiplier is a price in disguise. Paying 10x on four picks only helps if all four hit often enough, and the rate that makes it break even, 56.2% per leg, is never printed on the entry slip. This calculator inverts any payout structure into that number and prices your specific card against it, including Flex-style entries where consolation tiers make the math a weighted sum rather than a single root.
Where the leg probabilities come from
The honest source is the sportsbook market for the same stat. Convert the prop's price into a probability with the implied probability tool, adjust for any difference between the app's line and the book's, and enter that per leg. Legs can differ: the calculator handles mixed probabilities exactly, so a card with one strong leg and two coin flips is priced as what it is.
Frequently asked
How is pick'em expected value calculated?
Multiply the probability of each payout tier by its multiplier and sum. For all-or-nothing entries that's the product of the leg probabilities times the multiplier. For Flex entries each paying tier contributes: the chance of exactly that many hits times its multiplier. An expected return above $1 per $1 entered is a profitable card at your probabilities.
What win rate do I need on pick'em entries?
It depends on the structure. On the current schedule: a 6-pick Flex breaks even around 54.2% per leg, a 5-pick Flex at 54.3%, a 3-pick Power at 55.0%, a 4-pick Power at 56.2%, and the 2-pick Power and 3-pick Flex sit highest at 57.7%. The calculator computes the exact breakeven for whichever structure you select, including custom ones.
Does the calculator work for any pick'em app?
Yes. The presets follow the common PrizePicks Power and Flex schedule, and the custom mode accepts any structure as hits-and-multiplier pairs, so Underdog entries or a future schedule change price the same way. The math depends only on legs, tiers, and your probabilities, not on the operator.
More tools
Implied probability →
Turn any American odds or a Kalshi/Polymarket price into the implied win probability, then compare it to your own estimate to find betting value.
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Enter each leg's American odds and your stake to see combined parlay odds, total payout, and the real win probability.
Expected value →
Turn odds, your win probability, and stake into the expected value of a bet in dollars and percent.
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Find the mathematically optimal bet size from your edge and bankroll.