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MLB prop research: hit rates and K rates vs the line

Search any hitter or pitcher and see the share of games or starts he's cleared each prop line. Hits, home runs, and total bases for batters; strikeouts for starting pitchers, over recent form and the full season. The number you actually want before betting an over.

What the rate tells you

For each prop line, the tool shows the share of games (or starts) in which the player cleared it. For a hitter, 'over 1.5 hits' is the percent of games with 2+ hits and 'over 0.5 home runs' is how often he went deep. For a starting pitcher, 'over 5.5 strikeouts' is the share of starts he fanned 6 or more. The recent column is current form, the season column is the stable baseline, and a gap between them flags a hot or cold streak.

How to use it before betting an over

Compare the rate to what the sportsbook is paying. If a hitter clears over 1.5 total bases in 60% of his games, or a starter clears over 5.5 Ks in 60% of his starts, and the book prices it near a coin flip (-110 is about a 52% break-even), the over carries value. Open the full Statcast page for the matchup before you lock it in.

Frequently asked

Q.01

Where do the rates come from?

Each player's official MLB game log. For hitters we record hits, home runs, and total bases per game; for pitchers we record strikeouts per start. Then we compute the share that cleared each common prop line. Hitter windows are the last 10 games, last 30 games, and the full season; pitcher windows are the last 5 starts, last 10 starts, and the season. Refreshed daily.

Q.02

Why isn't my player showing up?

The tool covers hitters and starting pitchers currently active on a roster with a handful of recent games or starts. Injured players (on the IL) and bench players with tiny samples drop out until they're back. There's no prop to research on someone who isn't playing.

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