№ 01Perdomo has 11 hits in 32 at-bats over his last 10 games, a stretch of contact that lines up well with the over 1.5 total bases number.
№ 02Nick Lodolo carries a 5.51 ERA across 32.7 innings, and his 6.64 xERA and 6.04 FIP suggest the surface results have actually flattered him.
№ 03Lodolo throws 50.6% fastballs, and Perdomo owns a .351 xwOBA against fastballs across 169 plate appearances this season.
№ 04Great American Ball Park plays to a 1.24 home run factor and a 1.06 run environment, which expands the range of outcomes that clear two bases.
№ 05Lodolo has walked 14 batters in 32.7 innings for a 3.9 BB/9, giving Perdomo extra paths to reach base in hitter-friendly counts.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Perdomo over 1.5 total bases starts with recent contact. He has 11 hits in 32 at-bats over his last 10 games, which is a sharper rate than his .241 season mark and .69 OPS would suggest. Lodolo profiles as a pitcher hitters can do damage against right now. His 5.51 ERA already isn't strong, and his 6.64 xERA and 6.04 FIP both point lower. Across his most recent 5 starts, his FIP sits at 5.70 over 27.3 innings. The pitch mix matters too. Lodolo throws 50.6% fastballs, and Perdomo carries a .351 xwOBA against fastballs over 169 plate appearances. Add a 3.9 BB/9 from Lodolo and Great American Ball Park's 1.24 home run factor and 1.06 run environment, and the venue stretches the outcome distribution. The counter is real. Lodolo has gone 5.40 ERA in his two most recent starts versus 7.45 in the older two within that 5-start window, so he is trending in the right direction. Perdomo also carries a .64 OPS in 81 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, which is the main reason the price sits at +170.
§ 02The call
The recent at-bat sample, Lodolo's peripheral profile, the fastball matchup, and the Great American Ball Park environment together carry more weight than the platoon split and Lodolo's small improvement inside his recent window. Even granting the lefty-on-lefty discount baked into the number, the price is paying out at a rate that doesn't match the underlying matchup. Take Perdomo over 1.5 total bases at +170.
Final resultLOSSGeraldo Perdomo OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +170 Graded Jun 13, 2026