№ 01Matthew Liberatore carries a 5.23 ERA across 72.3 innings, and his 5.06 FIP backs up the run-prevention concerns rather than chalking them up to luck.
№ 02Liberatore's recent form is trending the wrong way, with his ERA over the last two starts at 13.50 compared to 2.61 in the older two of the window.
№ 03Both offenses are hot over the last week, with the home side averaging 5.4 runs per game and the away side averaging 5.8 runs per game.
№ 04The home bullpen has piled up 226 pitches over the last three days, leaving fewer fresh arms to slow either lineup if the starter gets pulled early.
№ 05On the other side, Liberatore's swinging-strike and strikeout stuff is trending up this season, which is the cleanest argument for the under.
§ 01The analysis
This total leans on the home starter. Matthew Liberatore is sitting on a 5.23 ERA across 72.3 innings with a 5.06 FIP that says the run damage is real, not a sequencing fluke. The recent split inside his last five starts is uglier still, with a 13.50 ERA over his two most recent outings versus 2.61 in the older two. Both lineups are walking into Busch warmed up, the home side averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 7 days and the visitors at 5.8 over the same stretch. If Liberatore gets chased early, the home bullpen has already burned 226 pitches across the last three days. The counter is honest: Liberatore's swinging-strike and K stuff is trending up this season, and his 21.2% strikeout rate gives him a path to keep traffic off the bases. Busch grades as a 1.00 run environment, so the venue is not a thumb on the scale either way. Injuries on both rosters are minor relative to the starting pitching gap driving this number.
§ 02The call
Take Over 9 at -110. The case is built around Liberatore, where the season-long ERA and FIP both live above 5 and the recent-start trend is pointing in the wrong direction at the worst possible time. Pair that with the home side averaging 5.4 runs per game and the visitors averaging 5.8 runs per game over the last week, plus a home bullpen already carrying 226 pitches of recent workload, and the path to clearing 9 is straightforward. The park is neutral and the strikeout uptick is real, but neither outweighs the starter profile in this spot.
Final resultWINOver 9 -110 · -110 Graded Jun 25, 2026