№ 01Michael McGreevy is carrying a 5.35 xERA across 108.0 innings, a signal his contact quality has been worse than his run prevention shows
№ 02McGreevy has been outpitching his underlying contact quality, so his run prevention is due to regress toward that xERA
№ 03McGreevy is striking out only 17.1% of batters and sits at a 4.14 FIP, leaving contact opportunities on the table
№ 04Del Castillo has 7 hits in 32 at-bats over his last 10 games, workable form heading into a neutral 1.00 run environment at Busch
№ 05The counter: Del Castillo is hitting .195 on the season with a 0.58 OPS across 154 at-bats, well below what this price wants
§ 01The analysis
Start with the number that matters most: Michael McGreevy's 5.35 xERA across 108.0 innings. That figure says his contact quality has been considerably worse than his run prevention, and the analysis flags him as due to regress. A 17.1% strikeout rate and a 4.14 FIP round out a right-hander who lets hitters put the ball in play. The stage helps too. Busch Stadium is running a 1.00 run environment this season, first pitch is in daylight, and Del Castillo's team has taken 4 of the last 5 meetings with this opponent. In his last 10 games Del Castillo has 7 hits in 32 at-bats, a usable recent baseline for a single-hit prop. The honest risk is the bat. Del Castillo is hitting .195 on the season with a 0.58 OPS across 154 at-bats, and against right-handed pitching he carries a .214 average and 0.65 OPS in 145 plate appearances. He is hitting .125 against right-handed changeups in 24 plate appearances. McGreevy has also been sharpening, running a 3.57 FIP across 29.7 innings over his last 5 starts.
§ 02The call
The lean rides on McGreevy's 5.35 xERA and 4.14 FIP telling a different story than his surface line, paired with a 17.1% strikeout rate that keeps the ball in play. Del Castillo's recent 7 hits in 32 at-bats fits the setup in a neutral 1.00 run environment. The drag is real. A .195 season average, a 0.65 OPS versus right-handers in 145 plate appearances, and McGreevy's 3.57 FIP over his last 29.7 innings are the counterweights the -127 price has to survive.
Final resultWINAdrian Del Castillo OVER 0.5 Hits · -127 Graded Jul 23, 2026