Key points — 5
- № 01Bryce Elder is in a different stratosphere than Connelly Early right now. Elder's season ERA sits at 1.97 across 68.7 innings, with a 3.22 FIP and 2.98 xERA both backing the surface number. Early counters with a 3.33 ERA but a 4.47 FIP and 4.68 xERA, peripherals scream he's been propped up.
- № 02Atlanta's offense is reeling on a 7-day basis with a -100 form score and a .271 xwOBA, Boston grades neutral at 0. That's a stark gap in recent bat quality, even though Atlanta's season-long offense ranks 3 in OPS vs Boston at 24.
- № 03Fenway plays as a run-friendly park overall, runFactor 1.10, but the HR factor of 0.89 suppresses over-the-fence damage, with lefty HR factor 0.88 and righty 0.90. Atlanta's lefty thumpers Olson and Harris II run into a slightly dampened HR environment.
- № 04Bullpens are uneven. Atlanta's pen is fresher overall, ranked 5 in lightest league usage, but closer Raisel Iglesias threw 25 pitches yesterday and is unavailable. Dylan Lee is questionable after 22 pitches. Boston's pen sits at rank 15 with Chapman fully rested, 0 pitches yesterday and a 0.51 ERA.
- № 05Boston's lineup grades poorly vs the opposing right-hander tonight at -35 across 698 PA, and Atlanta isn't much better at -17. Both lineups are platoon-disadvantaged tonight, a real Under signal.