№ 01Triolo has 9 hits in 30 at-bats over his last 10 games, the form that anchors this over 0.5 hits number at -136.
№ 02Grant Holmes carries a 4.62 xERA across 82.3 innings, meaning his surface results have been outrunning the contact he's actually allowing.
№ 03Holmes has walked 38 batters in 82.3 innings for a 4.2 BB/9, putting his command in the bottom tier of the league.
№ 04Holmes's FIP sits at 5.13 on the season and has ballooned to 6.06 across his last 5 starts and 21.3 innings.
№ 05The counter: Triolo owns a .234 average and 0.63 OPS in 140 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season.
§ 01The analysis
Triolo has been swinging a live bat, banking 9 hits in 30 at-bats over his last 10 games, and that's the run of form driving this over 0.5 hits price of -136. The matchup lines up with the trend. Grant Holmes carries a 4.62 xERA across 82.3 innings, a signal that his run prevention has been outperforming the underlying contact he's giving up and is due to regress. His FIP tells the same story at 5.13 for the year, and over his most recent 5 starts that number has climbed to 6.06 across 21.3 innings. Command is the other lever: 38 walks in 82.3 innings works out to a 4.2 BB/9, bottom-tier control, and his swinging-strike and strikeout rates have both slipped below his own baseline, with the season K rate sitting at 19.5%. Add a stressed opposing bullpen that has thrown 268 pitches over the last three days and the path to one Triolo hit gets wider. The risk is real though: Triolo has a 0.63 OPS across 140 plate appearances versus righties and a .234 average against them.
§ 02The call
You're paying -136 for a hitter riding a 9-for-30 stretch against a starter whose 4.62 xERA and 5.13 FIP say the underlying work has been shakier than the ledger, with a 6.06 FIP over his last 5 starts and a 4.2 BB/9 tying it together. The honest catch is Triolo's 0.63 OPS and .234 mark against right-handed pitching this season, and Holmes has held righties to a .215 average across 149 matchups. The form and the peripherals win the argument here.
Final resultLOSSJared Triolo OVER 0.5 Hits · -136 Graded Jul 9, 2026