№ 01Opposing bats have gone quiet over the last 7 days at 3.5 runs per game, meeting Singer as he trends into his best form of the year.
№ 02Across his last 5 starts Brady Singer has posted a 3.40 FIP over 26.3 innings, with swinging-strike and K rates running ahead of his season baseline.
№ 03Trevor Rogers is a 66.3% fastball starter, and this lineup carries a .353 xwOBA against fastballs over 1850 plate appearances this season.
№ 04Rogers is only striking out 18.8% of hitters, and the opposing catcher is bleeding 0.8 called strikes per 100 taken pitches versus league.
№ 05The counter: Singer sits at a 5.58 xERA on the year, Rogers owns a 4.07 xERA, and this offense ranks 24th in OPS at .70.
§ 01The analysis
The number that pulled us onto Cincinnati at +107 is 3.5. That is what the visiting offense has averaged over the last 7 days, and they run into a version of Brady Singer who has been sharper than his season line suggests. Across his last 5 outings Singer has a 3.40 FIP over 26.3 innings, with his swinging-strike and strikeout rates both running ahead of his own baseline. Trevor Rogers gives that Cincinnati lineup something to work with. He is striking out just 18.8% of hitters and leans on his fastball 66.3% of the time, and this Reds group has posted a .353 xwOBA against fastballs across 1850 plate appearances. The opposing battery does not help him either, with the catcher losing 0.8 called strikes per 100 taken pitches versus the league baseline in Great American Ball Park's 1.06 run environment. The risk is real. Singer carries a 5.58 xERA over 77.3 innings, Rogers has a 4.07 xERA and a 2.61 FIP over his last 5 starts across 30.7 innings, Rico Garcia (2.52 ERA, 35.7 IP) headlines a fresher opposing pen, and Cincinnati has gone 3-7 in its last 10 while ranking 24th in OPS at .70.
§ 02The call
The bet is that a cooling road offense (3.5 runs per game over the last 7 days) meeting a home starter trending up (3.40 FIP over his last 5) outweighs the season-long peripherals stacked against Singer. Rogers' fastball rate and the lineup's fastball damage are the specific edge, and the catcher framing gap is a small extra nudge. Rogers has been the better pitcher recently and the opposing pen is deeper, so this is not a clean profile, but +107 in a 1.06 run park is a workable number.
Final resultLOSSCincinnati Reds ML +107 · +107 Graded Jul 4, 2026