№ 01Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts show a downward trend, with a 5.79 ERA in the earlier outings jumping to 8.38 in the most recent ones.
№ 02Over those same 5 starts Cole owns a 5.82 FIP across 25.0 innings, and his season FIP has climbed to 4.51.
№ 03Cole throws 52.3% fastballs and our lineup runs a .346 xwOBA against fastballs this season across 1936 plate appearances.
№ 04The opposing side has lost 7 straight, gone 2-8 in its last 10, and averaged just 2.3 runs per game over the last 7 days without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
№ 05Our bullpen has thrown just 121 pitches over the last three days, a fresh group behind Paredes if the game turns into a chase.
§ 01The analysis
The most important thing on the board is what Gerrit Cole has actually done lately. His last 5 starts are trending the wrong way, with a 5.79 ERA in the earlier outings jumping to 8.38 in the most recent ones, and the peripherals back it up: a 5.82 FIP across 25.0 innings over that stretch, a season FIP of 4.51, and swinging-strike and K rates that have slipped below his own baseline. His mix leans on 52.3% fastballs, and our lineup carries a .346 xwOBA against fastballs across 1936 plate appearances this year, with the platoon edge already working over 748 plate appearances against right-handers. The other side of the equation is worse. The opposing club is on a 7-game losing streak, 2-8 in its last 10, averaging 2.3 runs per game over the last 7 days, and trending down against right-handed pitching across 562 plate appearances. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are both on the 10-day IL. Our bullpen has thrown only 121 pitches over the last three days, so the group behind Paredes is rested.
§ 02The call
The risk is honest. Cole's season xERA sits at 3.50 across 37.7 innings, and the opposing pitching staff ranks 1 of 30 in ERA at 3.36 with a fresh bullpen of its own (127 pitches over three days) and David Bednar's 16 saves waiting in the ninth. Mike Paredes brings a 5.44 xERA, a 5.19 FIP, an 11.5% strikeout rate, and a 5.10 FIP across 18.0 innings over his last 5 starts, so we're paying for the price tag. At +180, the shape of the matchup justifies the ticket.
Final resultLOSSMinnesota Twins ML +180 · +180 Graded Jul 4, 2026