№ 01Connelly Early's xERA of 4.53 sits well above his surface 3.81 ERA, suggesting his contact-quality results have outrun his peripherals.
№ 02Early's last five starts show a 5.60 FIP across 28.0 innings, with his two most recent outings at a 7.71 ERA compared to 2.03 in the older two.
№ 03Naylor is hitting .282 against left-handed pitching this season and carries a .391 slugging on lefty sinkers across 23 plate appearances.
№ 04Wind is blowing out to center at 9 mph at first pitch, helping carry on balls in the air.
№ 05Early has held left-handed batters to a .198 average across 81 matchups, which is the cleanest counter to this number.
§ 01The analysis
Naylor draws a left-hander whose results look better than the underlying work. Early carries a 3.81 ERA across 75.7 innings, but his xERA is 4.53 and his FIP sits at 4.75, both pointing to a pitcher who has been getting more out of contact than he should. The recent trend is the bigger flag — over his last five starts he owns a 5.60 FIP across 28.0 innings, and the two most recent outings have produced a 7.71 ERA against 2.03 in the older pair. Naylor fits the matchup. He is hitting .282 against left-handed pitching and slugging .391 on lefty sinkers over 23 plate appearances. The 9 mph wind blowing out to center adds carry. The counter is real — Early has limited left-handed batters to a .198 average over 81 matchups, and T-Mobile Park has played to a 0.83 run environment. At plus money, the contact-quality regression and the wind tilt enough of the price to take the shot.
§ 02The call
Take Naylor over 1.5 total bases at +174. The case is a starter whose 3.81 ERA is masked by a 4.53 xERA and a 4.75 FIP, with a recent stretch trending the wrong way at a 5.60 FIP over 28.0 innings. Naylor's .282 average and .391 slug on sinkers against lefties line up with the look he is getting, and the 9 mph wind out to center helps the over the wall path. Even granting Early's .198 mark against left-handed bats, the plus price covers the risk.
Final resultLOSSJosh Naylor OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +174 Graded Jun 21, 2026