№ 01Trey Yesavage is trending the wrong way, with his last five starts clearly worse than his earlier work and pointing to a pitcher losing his handle.
№ 02Across those recent five outings, Yesavage carries a 4.93 FIP over 27.3 innings, well above the level he set earlier in the year.
№ 03Command has cratered as well, with 39 walks in 75.0 innings adding up to a 4.7 BB/9 that lives in the bottom tier of the league.
№ 04His whiff and strikeout rates have both slipped under his own season baseline, softening the swing-and-miss edge that used to protect him.
№ 05The counter is real: Yesavage owns a 3.31 xERA and has held lefties to a .156 average across 173 matchups this year.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Colson Montgomery to clear 0.5 hits leans on a starter who is coming apart in real time. Trey Yesavage's last five outings have been visibly worse than the ones before, a clean fade rather than a blip, and the peripherals over that stretch back it up with a 4.93 FIP across 27.3 innings. The command has gone with it. Yesavage has issued 39 walks in 75.0 innings for a 4.7 BB/9 that sits in the bottom tier of the league, and both his swinging-strike and strikeout rates have dipped beneath his own season baseline. That is a pitcher giving hitters more counts to work in and fewer put-away pitches when he gets there. The risk is that the full-season line still looks like an ace's: Yesavage carries a 3.31 xERA over 75.0 innings and has smothered left-handed bats to a .156 average in 173 matchups. Montgomery himself is hitting just .221 with a 0.77 OPS on the year, and if the game stays close, Louis Varland and his 1.08 ERA over 50.0 relief innings loom late.
§ 02The call
You are betting the recent shape of Yesavage over the season-long shape. The five-start slide, the 4.93 FIP in that window, the 4.7 BB/9 and the sagging whiff and K rates all point to a starter who is handing out at-bats rather than dictating them, and Montgomery only needs one knock. The .221 average, the .156 mark Yesavage has posted against lefties, and Varland waiting in the ninth with a 1.08 ERA are the honest reasons this is priced at -145 and not shorter.
Final resultWINColson Montgomery OVER 0.5 Hits · -145 Graded Jul 19, 2026