№ 01Andrew Abbott's composite form score sits at 42, with his swinging-strike and K rates running ahead of his own baseline this season.
№ 02Will Warren's composite form score is -88, with his swinging-strike and K rates falling below his own baseline heading into this start.
№ 03The opposing side is without Aaron Judge, Austin Wells, and Giancarlo Stanton, all on the 10-day injured list for this matchup.
№ 04Warren throws 67.6% fastballs and the opposing lineup carries a .360 xwOBA against fastballs across 1572 plate appearances this season.
№ 05Our bullpen has thrown just 60 pitches over the last three days, leaving a fresh group behind Abbott in a plus-money spot.
§ 01The analysis
The case for the away side at +169 starts with the trajectories of the two starters. Abbott's form score is 42 with his swinging-strike and K rates ahead of his own baseline, while Warren's form score sits at -88 with both peripherals trending the wrong direction. Warren also leans on his fastball 67.6% of the time, and our lineup carries a .360 xwOBA against fastballs across 1572 plate appearances. The home lineup is also missing Aaron Judge, Austin Wells, and Giancarlo Stanton, all on the 10-day IL. Behind Abbott, our bullpen has thrown only 60 pitches over the last three days. The counter is real and reflected in the price. Warren carries a 3.47 ERA and a 3.25 FIP across 72.7 innings, the opposing pitching staff ranks 1 of 30 in ERA at 3.30, and Abbott's own 4.77 xERA and 4.79 FIP suggest his 3.95 ERA has outrun his peripherals. Our offense ranks 24 of 30 in OPS at 0.70 with a -54 7-day form score. This is a price bet on the form gap and the lineup the home side is running out.
§ 02The call
Take the away side at +169. The number is priced for Warren's season ERA and FIP, but the form gap is real — Abbott's swinging-strike and K rates are above his baseline at 42, Warren's are below at -88, and his fastball-heavy mix runs into a lineup posting a .360 xwOBA on fastballs. Add in Aaron Judge, Austin Wells, and Giancarlo Stanton out of the home lineup, plus a bullpen that has thrown only 60 pitches in three days behind Abbott, and the underdog price gives enough room to play. Away ML.
Final resultWINCincinnati Reds ML +169 · +169 Graded Jun 20, 2026