№ 01Will Warren throws 67.6% fastballs, and Steer has run a .387 xwOBA against fastballs across 167 plate appearances this season.
№ 02Yankee Stadium carries a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters, which lifts the ceiling on any pulled fly ball from Steer.
№ 03Wind is blowing out to right at 16 mph at first pitch, adding carry to the same field Steer drives the ball to.
№ 04Warren's composite form score sits at -88, with his swinging-strike and strikeout rates both running below his own baseline.
№ 05The clear counter is Steer's cold stretch, with just 2 hits in 31 at-bats over his last 10 games.
§ 01The analysis
This price is built around a matchup edge, not Steer's recent line. Will Warren leans on fastballs 67.6% of the time, and Steer has posted a .387 xwOBA against fastballs across 167 plate appearances this year. That is the pitch he handles, and Warren is going to throw it. Warren's form score is also sitting at -88, with his swinging-strike and strikeout rates dipping under his own baseline, even as his season ERA of 3.47 and 3.25 FIP still look respectable. The venue stacks on top. Yankee Stadium runs a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters, and the wind is blowing out to right at 16 mph at first pitch, both of which reward any pulled fly ball. The counter is real. Steer has 2 hits in 31 at-bats over his last 10 games, he is hitting .241 with a 0.75 OPS on the year, and his work against right-handed sliders over the last 30 days sits at a .178 xwOBA. At +178, you do not need him to be hot. You need one extra-base hit or a multi-hit day.
§ 02The call
Take Spencer Steer over 1.5 total bases at +178. The pick is anchored on a fastball-heavy starter whose form has slipped, a hitter who has actually hit fastballs at a .387 xwOBA clip this season, and a park-and-wind combination that turns pulled contact into doubles and home runs for right-handed bats. The recent slump and the soft slider numbers are real, and they are why the price is plus money. At nearly 2-to-1, you are getting paid to bet the matchup rather than the slump. Steer over 1.5 total bases.
Final resultWINSpencer Steer OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +178 Graded Jun 20, 2026