№ 01Chase Burns owns a 2.01 ERA but his xERA sits at 2.90, suggesting his contact-quality results have outrun his peripherals on the season.
№ 02Burns leans on his fastball 57.2% of the time, and McMahon carries a .364 xwOBA against fastballs across 117 plate appearances this year.
№ 03McMahon's barrel rate against right-handed sinkers sits at 23.1% across 19 plate appearances, pointing to real damage when he connects.
№ 04Yankee Stadium plays to a 1.19 home run factor for left-handed hitters, with the wind blowing out to right at 10 mph at first pitch.
№ 05If the game stretches late, Tony Santillan and his 5.46 ERA across 28.0 relief innings sit behind Burns as a softer target.
§ 01The analysis
This is a price play at +195 built on a quality-of-contact edge rather than recent form. McMahon has not been productive overall, hitting .212 on the season with a 0.64 OPS and just a 0.66 OPS in 156 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. The counter side is real. Burns has been excellent, with a 2.01 ERA across 80.7 innings, a 2.49 FIP over his last 5 starts, and a .172 average allowed to left-handed batters. The case for McMahon lives underneath those numbers. Burns's xERA of 2.90 runs well ahead of his surface results, and his fastball-heavy mix (57.2%) lines up with McMahon's .364 xwOBA against fastballs. The barrel rate against right-handed sinkers (23.1%) adds another contact-quality marker. Yankee Stadium boosts left-handed home runs at a 1.19 factor, and a 10 mph wind out to right pushes balls toward the short porch. If Burns exits, Santillan's 5.46 ERA across 28.0 relief innings opens a second window for extra-base contact.
§ 02The call
Take McMahon over 1.5 total bases at +195. The matchup is what matters here, not the season line. Burns's peripherals say he has been better than reality, his fastball-heavy mix meets a hitter with a .364 xwOBA on fastballs, and a left-handed bat in Yankee Stadium with the wind blowing out to right only needs one mistake. At this price you do not need McMahon to be hot. You need one extra-base hit or two singles, and the park, the wind, and the contact profile give you the path.
Final resultLOSSRyan McMahon OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +195 Graded Jun 21, 2026