№ 01Kyle Leahy carries a 5.23 xERA across 95.3 innings and has been outpitching his underlying contact quality, pointing to regression in his run prevention.
№ 02Trevino is hitting .267 on the season with a 0.70 OPS across 75 at-bats, a solid baseline for clearing 0.5 hits.
№ 03Over his last 10 games, Trevino has piled up 14 hits in 34 at-bats, so the swing is timed up entering this spot.
№ 04Against right-handed sinkers, Trevino hits .333 in 15 plate appearances and whiffs on just 4% of them, a strong contact match.
№ 05The risk: Leahy has held right-handed batters to a .198 average across 197 matchups and posted a 2.86 FIP over his last 5 starts.
§ 01The analysis
The strongest thread here is Kyle Leahy's 5.23 xERA across 95.3 innings, a number that says the underlying contact he has allowed is well ahead of the runs on the board. He has been outpitching his peripherals, and that gap is where a Trevino hit tends to fall. The bat backs it up. Trevino carries a .267 season average with a 0.70 OPS across 75 at-bats, and his last 10 games have produced 14 hits in 34 at-bats. The matchup specifics sharpen it further: against right-handed sinkers he hits .333 in 15 plate appearances while whiffing on just 4% of them. His broader right-handed splits fit too, with a 0.72 OPS in 67 plate appearances and a .262 average off that side. Busch Stadium plays neutral at a 1.00 run environment for a daylight first pitch. The honest counter is that Leahy has been genuinely tough on right-handed bats, holding them to a .198 average across 197 matchups, and over his last 5 starts he has run a 2.86 FIP across 25.3 innings, with a season strikeout rate of 19.9% and a 3.85 FIP overall.
§ 02The call
This lands on a hot hitter meeting a pitcher whose 5.23 xERA is louder than his surface line. Trevino's 14 hits in 34 at-bats over 10 games, plus a .333 mark on right-handed sinkers in 15 plate appearances with a 4% whiff rate, give him a repeatable way to put a ball in play. The pushback is real, with Leahy's .198 opponent average versus righties across 197 matchups and a 2.86 FIP over his last 5 starts across 25.3 innings, but -149 is a fair number for the profile.
Final resultLOSSJose Trevino OVER 0.5 Hits · -149 Graded Jul 27, 2026