№ 01Slade Cecconi has been hittable all year, posting a 4.53 xERA across 95.3 innings and a 4.58 FIP over his most recent 5 starts.
№ 02Kreidler owns a .333 average against right-handed sinkers on the season across 18 plate appearances, whiffing on just 23% of them.
№ 03Cecconi throws fastballs 72.6% of the time, and Kreidler carries a .342 xwOBA against fastballs across 76 plate appearances.
№ 04Against right-handed pitching Kreidler has hit .288 with a 0.83 OPS across 75 plate appearances this season.
№ 05Over the last 30 days Kreidler is hitting .417 against right-handed four-seamers in 13 plate appearances with a 10% whiff rate.
§ 01The analysis
The bet leans on a starter who has not missed enough barrels. Slade Cecconi is carrying a 4.53 xERA across 95.3 innings this season, and his recent form has not cleaned it up, with a 4.58 FIP over his most recent 5 starts covering 27.7 innings. His underlying FIP for the year sits at 4.29 and he is only striking out 17.5% of hitters, so contact gets put in play. Ryan Kreidler is well positioned for that contact profile. He is hitting .288 against right-handed pitching with a 0.83 OPS across 75 plate appearances, and the pitch mix works in his favor. Cecconi throws 72.6% fastballs, and Kreidler carries a .342 xwOBA against fastballs across 76 plate appearances. Zoom in and it gets sharper: .333 against right-handed sinkers over 18 plate appearances with a 23% whiff rate, and .417 against right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days across 13 plate appearances with just a 10% whiff rate. Target Field is playing to a 1.06 run environment on the year, another small nudge toward offense.
§ 02The call
The risk is the cold stretch. Over his last 10 games Kreidler has just 7 hits in 36 at-bats, and his season line of .256 across 121 at-bats with a 0.77 OPS is a reminder that he is not an every-night lock in the box score. Priced at -115, this rests on the matchup outweighing the slump: a fastball-heavy right-hander with a 4.53 xERA against a hitter whose best numbers show up against exactly those pitches, in a park nudging run scoring above neutral.
Final resultLOSSRyan Kreidler OVER 0.5 Hits · -115 Graded Jul 9, 2026