All picks

Baseball · MLB ·

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Colorado Rockies ML +184
Line
+184
Bet type
Game
Status
LOSS
CLV
—
Key points — 5
  1. № 01Shota Imanaga has run an 8.19 FIP across 26.7 innings over his most recent 5 starts, and his composite form score sits at -73 on the season.
  2. № 02The opposing bullpen has thrown 247 pitches over the last three days and ranks 27 of 30 in 3-day relief pitch volume, with no settled ninth-inning role behind that group.
  3. № 03Hoby Milner's 5.16 xERA sits above his 3.73 ERA, suggesting his late-game results have been better than the underlying contact quality.
  4. № 04Michael Lorenzen's 5.69 xERA undercuts his 7.54 surface ERA, and his composite form score of 27 shows his swinging-strike and K rates running ahead of baseline.
  5. № 05These two teams have met 5 times recently with our side winning 4 and losing 1, and the opposing club is down Ludwing Espinoza, Reginald Preciado, and Tyler Austin on the injured list.

§ 01The analysis

The price on the away side reflects real concern — Lorenzen carries a 7.54 ERA across 65.7 innings and his 17.2% strikeout rate is light. Our lineup also carries a -73 form score against left-handed pitching across 288 plate appearances, and the team has gone 3-7 over its last 10. Those are not facts to wave away. But the matchup pushes back. Imanaga's 4.44 ERA and 4.61 FIP already sit above what his 25.6% K rate would suggest, and over his last 5 starts his FIP has ballooned to 8.19 across 26.7 innings with a form score of -73. Lorenzen's 5.69 xERA hints his contact allowed has tracked better than the runs say. Behind Imanaga, the opposing bullpen has logged 247 pitches in three days, ranks 27 of 30 in that window, and has no crystallized closer, while Milner's 5.16 xERA sits above his 3.73 ERA. Wrigley Field plays at a 0.94 run environment, though wind is blowing out to right at 11 mph.

§ 02The call

Take the away side at +184. The number is built off Lorenzen's 7.54 ERA and a 3-7 stretch, but the underlying contact quality on his line is materially better than the runs, and Imanaga is in the worst form window of his season with an 8.19 FIP over his last 5 starts and a -73 form score. The opposing bullpen ranks 27 of 30 in 3-day pitch volume with no defined closer, which raises the value on every late at-bat. At this price, this is the right side.

Final resultLOSSColorado Rockies ML +184 · +184
Graded Jun 16, 2026

Get the daily card before kickoff

Subscribe