№ 01Nick Martínez's xERA of 4.45 sits well above his 2.43 ERA, suggesting his contact-quality results have outrun his peripherals.
№ 02Across Martínez's last 5 starts, his ERA in the most recent two is 7.36 versus 0.75 in the older two, showing he is worsening within the window.
№ 03Dodger Stadium carries a 1.27 home run factor for hitters this season, helping any ball in the air play up.
№ 04Freeland has just 3 hits in 23 at-bats over his last 10 games, the clearest counter to backing him for a base.
№ 05Martínez is striking batters out at just a 12.3% clip, meaning Freeland should put the ball in play and force the defense to make a play.
§ 01The analysis
This is a price-driven play on Alex Freeland reaching base via a hit. The matchup is the reason. Nick Martínez owns a shiny 2.43 ERA across 77.7 innings, but his 4.45 xERA and 3.47 FIP both say the surface line is doing real work. His recent stretch backs that up — his ERA over his last two starts is 7.36 against 0.75 in the two before, so he is trending the wrong way as the sample grows. He is also only striking out 12.3% of hitters, which keeps the ball in play. Dodger Stadium adds a 1.27 home run factor for hitters this season, so any contact carries. The counter is Freeland himself. He has just 3 hits in 23 at-bats over his last 10 games and sits at a .234 average with a 0.66 OPS on the year, including a 0.70 OPS in 142 plate appearances against right-handers. That is the risk baked into a -110 line on the smallest possible bar — one total base.
§ 02The call
Take Alex Freeland over 0.5 total bases. The pitching matchup tells the story. Martínez's ERA is masking a 4.45 xERA and a 3.47 FIP, his last two starts have produced a 7.36 ERA, and his 12.3% strikeout rate puts the ball in play. Dodger Stadium's 1.27 home run factor rewards any contact that goes in the air. Freeland's cold 10-game stretch is the real argument against, but at -110 for a single base off a fading starter in a hitter-friendly park, the number is the right side.
Final resultLOSSAlex Freeland OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -110 Graded Jun 16, 2026