№ 01Torres is hitting .282 with a 0.79 OPS across 156 at-bats, giving him a solid baseline to clear 1.5 total bases.
№ 02Over his last 10 games he has 14 hits in 40 at-bats, so the recent contact rate backs up the season line.
№ 03Against right-handed pitching he carries a 0.84 OPS in 143 plate appearances and is hitting .325, and Kai-Wei Teng throws from that side.
№ 04Torres owns a .357 xwOBA against fastballs across 133 plate appearances, and Teng leans on the fastball 43.5% of the time.
№ 05Teng is trending the wrong way with a 9.00 ERA in his two most recent starts versus 0.00 in the older two, paired with a 4.2 BB/9 that ranks in the bottom tier for command.
§ 01The analysis
This is a matchup bet. Torres has been a steady right-handed bat all year at .282 with a 0.79 OPS, and the last 10 games show no slippage with 14 hits in 40 at-bats. The split lines up too — a 0.84 OPS and .325 average against righties in 143 plate appearances against a right-hander whose form is sliding. Teng has run a 9.00 ERA over his last two starts after 0.00 in the prior two, his 4.50 FIP across 25.0 innings in that 5-start window backs up the slide, and a 4.2 BB/9 means free traffic and hitter's counts. The pitch mix tilts further toward Torres — Teng throws 43.5% fastballs and Torres carries a .357 xwOBA on fastballs over 133 plate appearances. The counter is real. Teng has held right-handed hitters to a .162 average across 105 matchups this season, and if the game gets late Bryan King and his 2.37 ERA across 30.3 innings is waiting. Daikin Park's 1.03 home run factor for right-handed hitters gives the extra-base equity a small nudge.
§ 02The call
Take Gleyber Torres over 1.5 total bases at +160. The season profile, the last-10 sample, and the split against right-handed pitching all point the same way, and Teng is the kind of arm — worsening recent form, 4.2 BB/9, fastball-heavy — that Torres has handled well on the data. The low average Teng has posted against righties is the one real concern, but at plus money with a hitter swinging the bat this well in a park that plays neutral-to-up for right-handed power, the price is the right side.
Final resultLOSSGleyber Torres OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +160 Graded Jun 16, 2026