№ 01Michael Lorenzen carries a 7.54 ERA across 65.7 innings, and his 4.70 FIP says the underlying contact has not been sharp either.
№ 02Lorenzen throws 49.2% fastballs, and Hoerner has run a .347 xwOBA against fastballs across 211 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Wind is blowing out to right at 11 mph at first pitch, and Wrigley Field carries a 1.02 home run factor for right-handed hitters this season.
№ 04If the game gets to the back end, closer Jaden Hill carries a 5.32 ERA across 23.7 relief innings, leaving extra-base looks available late.
№ 05The counter is Hoerner's form — 6 hits in 39 at-bats over his last 10 games and a 0.61 OPS in 229 plate appearances against righties.
§ 01The analysis
This pick is built around the matchup more than the hitter. Michael Lorenzen has a 7.54 ERA over 65.7 innings, a 4.70 FIP, and a 4.67 FIP across his last 5 starts spanning 21.7 innings, so the contact quality against him has been consistent with the runs. He throws 49.2% fastballs, and Hoerner's .347 xwOBA against fastballs across 211 plate appearances is the one part of his profile that plays. Wind blowing out to right at 11 mph at Wrigley, paired with a 1.02 home run factor for right-handed hitters, gives the over an extra lane at +165. If the score stays close, Jaden Hill and his 5.32 ERA over 23.7 innings keep extra-base chances on the table late, and the away bullpen has already thrown 233 pitches over the last three days. The pushback is real — Hoerner is at 6 hits in 39 at-bats over his last 10 games and carries a 0.61 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, so this is a price play, not a form play.
§ 02The call
Take Hoerner over 1.5 total bases at +165. The number is priced for a slumping hitter, but the pitcher on the other side has a 7.54 ERA and gives Hoerner the fastball usage his bat actually handles. Wrigley with the wind blowing out to right at 11 mph turns gap contact into doubles and adds a small home run lane. The recent slump and 0.61 OPS against righties are why the price is +165, not why the bet is wrong. Lean over.
Final resultLOSSNico Hoerner OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +165 Graded Jun 16, 2026