№ 01Jake McCarthy is hitting .302 across 315 at-bats this season with a .85 OPS, giving this over a foundation built on volume and consistency
№ 02The recent form matches the season line, with 13 hits in 43 at-bats over his last 10 games
№ 03Against right-handed pitching specifically, McCarthy owns a .82 OPS across 255 plate appearances and a .284 average
№ 04Jacob Misiorowski leans on his fastball 76.2% of the time, and McCarthy carries a .360 xwOBA against fastballs over 211 plate appearances
№ 05The risk is real: Misiorowski holds a 2.01 xERA over 115.0 innings and has held lefties to a .091 average across 241 matchups
§ 01The analysis
McCarthy's season slash carries this ticket. He is hitting .302 across 315 at-bats with an .85 OPS, and the recent run mirrors it cleanly, with 13 hits in his last 43 at-bats over a 10-game window. The platoon split holds up too, an .82 OPS in 255 plate appearances against righties and a .284 average in that same split. The stylistic fit is where the interest sharpens. Jacob Misiorowski throws fastballs 76.2% of the time, and McCarthy has run a .360 xwOBA against fastballs across 211 plate appearances this year. That is the pitch he is going to see, and that is the pitch he has hit. The counter is not subtle. Misiorowski's 2.01 xERA over 115.0 innings, his 1.84 FIP, and a 38.3% strikeout rate speak for themselves, and he has held left-handed hitters to a .091 average across 241 matchups. His last five starts have been more human at a 3.06 FIP over 28.0 innings, but the profile still argues against contact. American Family Field checks in at a 0.94 run environment, and McCarthy is 1-for-6 in his career against Misiorowski.
§ 02The call
The bet leans on McCarthy's .302 average, his .82 OPS versus righties, and a fastball-heavy opponent walking into a hitter with a .360 xwOBA against the pitch. That is a clean stylistic overlap, and the recent 13-for-43 stretch says the bat is on time. The path to a loss runs through Misiorowski's 1.84 FIP and the .091 mark lefties have posted against him in 241 tries. Take the price knowing you are betting the matchup, not the pitcher's overall line.
Final resultLOSSJake McCarthy OVER 0.5 Hits · -133 Graded Jul 27, 2026