№ 01Ryan Johnson has been hittable this year, carrying a 4.96 xERA across 33.3 innings that points to contact quality getting through against him.
№ 02The peripherals go further south, with Johnson's FIP sitting at 6.28 on the season as the defense-independent read on his work.
№ 03His recent form matches the profile, a 5.34 FIP across 25.0 innings over his last 5 starts, so the shape has not changed.
№ 04The opposing bullpen has no established closer with the ninth inning still unsettled, which keeps late outs available in a 1.02 run environment at Angel Stadium.
№ 05The risk is the platoon read, Lee owns a 0.63 OPS in 87 plate appearances against righties and is hitting .241 versus right-handed pitching.
§ 01The analysis
The lean here starts with the arm on the other side. Ryan Johnson brings a 4.96 xERA across 33.3 innings this season into Angel Stadium, and the deeper indicators tell the same story. His FIP sits at 6.28 on the year, and the recent sample is not offering any correction, with a 5.34 FIP across 25.0 innings over his last 5 starts. Strikeouts have not been the escape valve either, with Johnson punching out 17.8% of batters he faces. Behind him, the opposition is working without an established closer, the ninth-inning role has not crystallized, which matters for at-bats deeper in the game under a 1.02 run environment and a daylight first pitch. Lee comes in hitting .255 on the season across 153 at-bats with a 0.68 OPS, and he has 8 hits in 30 at-bats over his last 10 games. The counter is real. Lee owns just a 0.63 OPS in 87 plate appearances versus right-handers and is hitting .241 against them, and Johnson leans on his fastball 84.9% of the time, a pitch Lee has managed only a .297 xwOBA against in 96 plate appearances.
§ 02The call
The case rests on the opposing starter. A 4.96 xERA, a 6.28 FIP, and a 5.34 FIP across his last 25.0 innings all point the same direction, and the bullpen behind him has no set ninth-inning arm to lean on. Lee has been trending in the right window with 8 hits in his last 30 at-bats. The honest hazard is the split, a 0.63 OPS versus righties in 87 plate appearances and a .297 xwOBA against fastballs, the pitch Johnson throws 84.9% of the time.
Final resultWINHao-Yu Lee OVER 0.5 Hits · -141 Graded Jul 19, 2026