№ 01Christian Scott's 4.78 xERA across 49.0 innings tells a different story than his 3.49 ERA, a 1.29-run gap pointing squarely at regression.
№ 02Scott's last 5 starts have flipped from a 0.84 ERA in the earlier outings to a 5.40 ERA in the most recent ones.
№ 03Scott's FIP is up at 5.86, while opposing starter Steven Cruz brings a 4.02 xERA and 4.04 FIP over 28.3 innings.
№ 04Both top leverage arms have been leaking runs: Devin Williams sits at a 4.85 ERA and Lucas Erceg carries a 5.19 ERA.
№ 05Home offense is averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 7 days, and the wind is blowing out to center at 13 mph.
§ 01The analysis
Christian Scott's 3.49 ERA looks the part, but the 4.78 xERA across 49.0 innings is the honest read on him, and the 1.29-run gap is the whole pitch for this over. The trend line agrees: across his last 5 starts, a 0.84 ERA in the earlier outings has given way to a 5.40 ERA in the most recent ones, with his FIP now up at 5.86. He's opposed by Steven Cruz, whose 4.02 xERA and 4.04 FIP across 28.3 innings offer no real firewall, and the away lineup has been working right-handed pitching all year across 546 plate appearances. The home offense is riding a 5.2 runs per game average over the last 7 days, and the wind is blowing out to center at 13 mph at first pitch. Once the starters exit, both bullpens hand the ball to shaky top arms: Devin Williams at a 4.85 ERA on 361 pitches over the last three days, and Lucas Erceg at a 5.19 ERA on 215 pitches over the same window. Late-game runs have been on the menu for both sides.
§ 02The call
The counter is real. The away offense has been ice-cold over the last 7 days at 4.6 runs per game, Citi Field plays as a 0.96 run environment this season, and Scott's swinging-strike and K stuff is trending up with a 28.0% strikeout rate. Both closers also grade better underneath, with Williams at a 3.24 xERA and Erceg at a 4.28 xERA. Even accounting for that, the starter regression signals, the tired bullpens with leaky top arms, and the wind blowing out to center at 13 mph line up with the over 9.5 at -107.
Final resultLOSSOver 9.5 -107 · -107 Graded Jul 9, 2026