All picks

Baseball · MLB ·

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Jordan Lawlar OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Line
+180
Bet type
Prop
Status
LOSS
CLV
—
Key points — 5
  1. № 01Jordan Lawlar is hitting .320 across 25 at-bats this season with a 0.89 OPS, the kind of contact profile that travels well into a two-base prop.
  2. № 02Lawlar has 8 hits in 25 at-bats over his last 8 games, so the bat is producing in the window that matters for tonight.
  3. № 03Walbert Ureña has walked 33 batters across 55.3 innings for a 5.4 BB/9, putting him in the bottom tier of the league for command and giving Lawlar extra hittable counts.
  4. № 04Ureña's xERA of 3.29 sits well above his 2.44 ERA, meaning the contact quality against him has been better than his surface line suggests.
  5. № 05Closer Sam Bachman is unavailable after recent usage and the opposing bullpen has thrown 223 pitches over the last three days, opening softer late-inning looks.

§ 01The analysis

The case for Lawlar over 1.5 total bases starts with the bat. He is hitting .320 on the season across 25 at-bats with a 0.89 OPS, and the recent window matches the season line at 8 hits in his last 25 at-bats over 8 games. Walbert Ureña is the obvious counter, carrying a 2.44 ERA across 55.3 innings and holding right-handed hitters to a .186 average across 118 matchups, so this is not a soft on-paper draw. But the peripherals tell a different story. Ureña's xERA is 3.29 and his FIP is 3.84, both meaningfully above the ERA, and his 5.4 BB/9 ranks in the bottom tier of the league for command. Chase Field grades at a 1.06 run environment this season, which helps the at-bats that do get put in play. Late, the path opens up further. Sam Bachman is unavailable after recent usage, the ninth-inning role has not crystallized, and the away bullpen has thrown 223 pitches over the last three days.

§ 02The call

Take Jordan Lawlar over 1.5 total bases at +180. The price reflects Ureña's 2.44 ERA and his .186 mark against righties, but the underlying work — a 3.29 xERA, a 3.84 FIP, and a 5.4 BB/9 — points to a starter living above his peripherals. Lawlar is swinging it at a .320 clip with a 0.89 OPS, and Chase Field's 1.06 run environment helps the contact. With Bachman down and the bullpen at 223 pitches over three days, late at-bats favor the hitter.

Final resultLOSSJordan Lawlar OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +180
Graded Jun 16, 2026

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