№ 01Ryan Johnson is running a 4.62 xERA across 38.3 innings, the underlying number that frames this matchup for Susac at Oracle Park.
№ 02Johnson has issued 16 walks in 38.3 innings for a 3.8 BB/9, sitting in the bottom tier of the league for command.
№ 03His FIP sits at 6.18 on the season, with the defense-independent peripheral pointing to a shakier arm than the surface may suggest.
№ 04Johnson's last five starts trend the wrong way, a 4.82 FIP across 25.0 innings with recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones.
№ 05The counter is Susac's form: 3 hits in 22 at-bats over his last 10 games and a 0.56 OPS in 88 PA versus righties.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Daniel Susac clearing 0.5 hits leans on the arm across from him. Ryan Johnson has posted a 4.62 xERA over 38.3 innings this season, and the peripherals underneath run harsher than that: a 6.18 FIP and 16 walks in those 38.3 frames, a 3.8 BB/9 that lands in the bottom tier of the league for command. The trajectory is not helping him either. Over his most recent 5 starts, Johnson has carried a 4.82 FIP across 25.0 innings, with the later outings clearly worse than the earlier ones. He is striking out 18.7% of batters on the year, useful context but not enough to paper over the walk rate and the trend line. Susac himself is hitting .257 across 113 at-bats with a 0.63 OPS, and the first pitch is in daylight at Oracle Park. The honest risk is that Susac has gone 3-for-22 over his last 10 games, sits at a 0.56 OPS in 88 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, and hits .218 versus righties overall, with Oracle Park's 0.94 run environment doing him no favors.
§ 02The call
The read is straightforward. Johnson's 4.62 xERA, 6.18 FIP and 3.8 BB/9 describe a starter giving hitters runways, and the 4.82 FIP across his last 25.0 innings says the slide is current, not stale. Susac's own slump is the price of admission at -144, and a 0.56 OPS against righties in 88 plate appearances plus a 0.94 park factor at Oracle are real. The pitcher profile is doing the heavy lifting here, and it is enough to take Susac over 0.5 hits.
Final resultLOSSDaniel Susac OVER 0.5 Hits · -144 Graded Jul 25, 2026