Key points — 5
- № 01Tonight's pitching matchup pits Dodgers lefty Justin Wrobleski against Diamondbacks righty Ryne Nelson, and it's Nelson who profiles as the soft spot. Nelson carries a 4.82 ERA with a 5.37 FIP underneath it, the peripherals say he's not even getting away with luck, and his -40 form score confirms a struggling arm.
- № 02Andy Pages is squarely in the crosshairs against that profile. He's hitting .291 with a .530 slugging mark on the season, a power-and-contact combination that travels well against a pitcher surrendering hard contact.
- № 03The matchup-specific split is the clincher. Against the hand Nelson throws, Pages owns a .854 OPS across 197 plate appearances, a large, stable sample, not a small-sample mirage, and his .854 OPS there is comfortably above the bar for clearing 1.5 total bases.
- № 04Pages is also red-hot. Over his last 10 games he's hitting .326 with 3 home runs, extra-base thump that pushes total-bases overs. A double or a homer single-handedly clears this line, and Pages is producing both.
- № 05Nelson surrenders damage to righties, 7 home runs and 8 doubles allowed across 130 batters faced. Chase Field's run factor of 1.06 is hitter-friendly overall, and while the right-handed HR factor sits at 0.97, total bases don't require homers, gaps and line drives all count.