№ 01Jared Young is riding a hot stretch with 10 hits in 25 at-bats over his last 10 games, a pace that dwarfs the 0.5 threshold.
№ 02Young owns a 0.81 OPS across 160 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, hitting .266 in that split.
№ 03Emmet Sheehan has been leaking runs over his most recent 5 starts, posting a 4.86 FIP across 23.3 innings.
№ 04The honest risk: Sheehan's 3.88 xERA on the season suggests his contact quality has been sharper than his surface numbers.
№ 05Tanner Scott looms in relief with a 2.32 ERA over 42.7 innings, and Citi Field's 0.96 run environment tilts pitcher-friendly.
§ 01The analysis
Jared Young steps in with a bat that has been dialed in, banging out 10 hits in 25 at-bats over his last 10 games. That heater aligns cleanly with the matchup on paper. Young carries a 0.81 OPS through 160 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season and is hitting .266 in the split, giving him a track record against the handedness he draws today. The opposing arm is Emmet Sheehan, who has slipped over his most recent 5 starts to a 4.86 FIP across 23.3 innings, with his season FIP settling at 4.29. Sheehan does miss bats at a 26.3% strikeout clip, and Young has hit just .217 against right-handed sliders across 26 plate appearances, so the swing-and-miss risk is live. The counter to the bet is real: Sheehan's 3.88 xERA hints his contact quality has outrun his results, Citi Field runs a 0.96 environment this season, and Tanner Scott is waiting late with a 2.32 ERA over 42.7 innings. Young's team has also dropped all 5 of the last 5 meetings with this opponent. First pitch is in daylight.
§ 02The call
The lean here rests on the version of Young who has been squaring balls up for two weeks running into a starter whose recent 4.86 FIP over 23.3 innings says the barrels have been finding him. The .266 average and 0.81 OPS versus righties across 160 plate appearances give the profile a stable floor beneath the hot stretch. Sheehan's 3.88 xERA and the Citi Field run environment are the parts of this ticket that could bite, but one hit is the ask, and the price at -125 reflects a reasonable path to it.
Final resultLOSSJared Young OVER 0.5 Hits · -125 Graded Jul 27, 2026