№ 01Dalton Rushing has 8 hits in 26 at-bats over his last 10 games, a run of form that anchors the case for another knock.
№ 02Against right-handed pitching this season, Rushing owns a 0.81 OPS across 152 plate appearances, comfortably above his .254 season average.
№ 03Gerrit Cole leans on the fastball 53.1% of the time, and Rushing has posted a .342 xwOBA against fastballs across 107 plate appearances.
№ 04Rushing is batting .246 versus right-handers this year, giving the projection a stable baseline against Cole's handedness profile.
№ 05The risk is Cole's 3.48 xERA across 49.0 innings and the .211 average he has held left-handed hitters to across 133 matchups.
§ 01The analysis
The read on Dalton Rushing starts with what he has been doing lately. He has 8 hits in 26 at-bats over his last 10 games, and that hot stretch lines up with a season profile that plays well into this matchup. Against right-handed pitching, Rushing carries a 0.81 OPS in 152 plate appearances and is hitting .246, well ahead of his .254 overall mark across 181 at-bats. The pitch mix matters too. Gerrit Cole throws 53.1% fastballs, and Rushing has punished heaters this year to the tune of a .342 xwOBA in 107 plate appearances. Cole's FIP sits at 3.98 and his strikeout rate is 23.0%, so there is contact to be had if Rushing stays disciplined. Yankee Stadium grades at a 1.00 run environment, a neutral backdrop rather than a suppressor. The counter is real. Cole owns a 3.48 xERA across 49.0 innings and has been sharpening across his last 5 starts. He has also held left-handed batters to a .211 average in 133 matchups. Rushing's slider problem, a .210 average and 42% whiff rate in 19 plate appearances, is the pitch to watch.
§ 02The call
The recent form is loud, 8 hits in 26 at-bats, and the underlying matchup fits. Rushing's 0.81 OPS versus righties in 152 plate appearances and his .342 xwOBA on fastballs meet a starter throwing 53.1% heaters. Cole's 3.48 xERA and .211 average against lefties across 133 matchups keep this from being clean, and the slider whiff rate at 42% is the swing factor. At -132, the price is asking for one hit from a hitter trending up in a neutral park, and the ingredients are pointing that direction.
Final resultLOSSDalton Rushing OVER 0.5 Hits · -132 Graded Jul 18, 2026