№ 01MacKenzie Gore's last five starts show a clear downturn: a 2.77 ERA in the earlier outings has ballooned to an 8.00 ERA in the most recent ones.
№ 02Truist Park sits at 1050 feet of elevation, and first-pitch conditions add 86°F air and an 11 mph wind blowing out to right field.
№ 03Gore leans on his fastball 58.6% of the time, and the opposing lineup owns a .347 xwOBA against fastballs across 2049 plate appearances this year.
№ 04The away battery's catcher is costing his pitcher 0.6 called strikes per 100 taken pitches versus league baseline, shrinking Gore's margin in the zone.
№ 05Gore's 3.88 xERA sits well under his 4.63 ERA, a 0.75-run gap suggesting some regression toward tighter run prevention is due.
§ 01The analysis
The strongest thread here is the trajectory on MacKenzie Gore. Across his last five starts, the earlier outings produced a 2.77 ERA while the most recent ones have swelled to 8.00, and he's walking into a park and a forecast built to punish that slide. Truist Park sits at 1050 feet of elevation, first pitch is 86°F, and the wind is pushing out to right at 11 mph, three tailwinds on the same ball flight. The matchup piles on. Gore throws 58.6% fastballs, and the lineup he's facing has posted a .347 xwOBA against fastballs across 2049 plate appearances this season. His own catcher isn't doing him favors either, losing 0.6 called strikes per 100 taken pitches versus the league baseline, which nudges more counts into hitter territory. The risk is real: Gore's 3.88 xERA runs 0.75 below his 4.63 ERA, his FIP checks in at 3.57, and both offenses have cooled recently, the home side to 2.5 runs per game and the away side to 4.0 over the last seven days. Injuries also thin both lineups, with Kim and Yastrzemski out for the home side and Seager and Freeman out for the away side.
§ 02The call
The bet leans on the pitcher trending the wrong way at exactly the wrong venue and forecast. Gore's last five starts have doubled and then some in ERA, his fastball-heavy mix walks into a lineup slugging fastballs at a .347 xwOBA clip, and the ballpark is elevated, warm, and blowing out. Cold recent bats and Gore's peripherals give the under a case worth respecting, but the collection of pressure points on the starter and the ball flight is why Over 9 at -105 is the play.
Final resultWINOver 9 -105 · -105 Graded Jul 18, 2026