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Baseball · MLB ·

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Carson Benge OVER 0.5 Hits
Line
-140
Bet type
Prop
Status
LOSS
CLV
+0.0%
Key points · 5
  1. № 01Carson Benge has 11 hits in 37 at-bats over his last 10 games, giving him a working stretch of contact heading into this day game at Citizens Bank Park.
  2. № 02Jesús Luzardo throws 42.9% fastballs, and Benge owns a .374 xwOBA against fastballs across 244 plate appearances this year, a direct pitch-mix edge.
  3. № 03Benge is hitting .267 against lefties this season and carries a 0.72 OPS in 95 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching, keeping the platoon spot playable.
  4. № 04The counter is Luzardo's 2.96 xERA across 110.3 innings and a 2.65 FIP, with a 28.9% strikeout rate that leaves little room for cheap contact.
  5. № 05Luzardo has held left-handed hitters to a .170 average across 112 matchups and has posted a 1.43 FIP over his last 5 starts spanning 31.7 innings.

§ 01The analysis

The lead reason to be on Benge over 0.5 hits is the bat itself right now. He has 11 hits in 37 at-bats across his last 10 games, and there's a specific matchup path underneath the hot stretch. Luzardo goes to the fastball 42.9% of the time, and Benge has run a .374 xwOBA against fastballs over 244 plate appearances this season. On the year he's hitting .263 with a 0.73 OPS across 357 at-bats, and against left-handed pitching specifically he's at .267 with a 0.72 OPS through 95 plate appearances, so the platoon side isn't a hole. Citizens Bank Park is playing to a 1.02 run environment this season, and first pitch is in daylight. The honest risk is the arm on the other side. Luzardo carries a 2.96 xERA across 110.3 innings and a 2.65 FIP, he's punching out 28.9% of the league, and lefties are hitting .170 against him across 112 matchups. His last 5 starts have produced a 1.43 FIP over 31.7 innings, and Jhoan Duran waits in the ninth with a 1.38 ERA in 32.7 relief innings.

§ 02The call

The pick leans on Benge's recent form and a real pitch-mix fit: 11 hits in his last 37 at-bats, and a .374 xwOBA against the fastballs Luzardo throws 42.9% of the time. Luzardo's 2.96 xERA, 2.65 FIP, 28.9% strikeout rate and .170 average allowed to lefties are the reason this is -140 rather than a shorter number, and Duran's 1.38 ERA shortens any late plate appearance. One knock through six is all this needs.

Final resultLOSSCarson Benge OVER 0.5 Hits · -140
Graded Jul 18, 2026

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