№ 01Roki Sasaki takes the mound with a 4.64 xERA over 81.0 innings, the underlying number pointing to a hittable profile rather than a stingy one.
№ 02His 5.40 FIP backs that up, showing the defense-independent peripherals agree the run prevention has been shaky all year.
№ 03The last five starts have been uglier still, with Sasaki running an 8.01 FIP across 23.0 innings of work.
№ 04Both his swinging-strike rate and his 22.7% strikeout rate have slipped under his own baseline, hinting the stuff is not playing.
№ 05Chisholm has 8 hits in 35 at-bats over his last 10 games, keeping the volume steady enough to clear a single-hit number.
§ 01The analysis
The lean here starts with the arm on the other side. Roki Sasaki is carrying a 4.64 xERA through 81.0 innings, and the peripherals only sharpen the picture, with a 5.40 FIP suggesting the surface results have not been kind to him for a reason. The recent trend is worse. Across his last five starts, spanning 23.0 innings, Sasaki has posted an 8.01 FIP, and both his swinging-strike rate and his 22.7% strikeout rate have dipped under his own baseline this season. That gives Chisholm a live path to a hit at -140. His form is workable too, with 8 hits in his last 35 at-bats over the past 10 games, in a Yankee Stadium environment carrying a neutral 1.00 run factor. The risk is real. Chisholm is hitting .223 on the year across 319 at-bats with a 0.70 OPS, and he sits at .225 against right-handers with a 0.72 OPS across 241 plate appearances. Sasaki has also held lefties to a .207 mark over 193 matchups this season, so the specific matchup pushes back against the broader case.
§ 02The call
The read leans on Sasaki being the softer side of this matchup. A 4.64 xERA, a 5.40 FIP, and a five-start stretch at 8.01 FIP over 23.0 innings all point the same direction, and the drop in swinging-strike and strikeout rates lines up with that. Chisholm's .223 season average and Sasaki's .207 mark against left-handers are the honest counterweight, and they are why the price sits at -140 rather than something shorter. The recent 8-for-35 stretch is enough to stay with the over.
Final resultWINJazz Chisholm Jr. OVER 0.5 Hits · -140 Graded Jul 18, 2026