№ 01Tonight's total of 15 sits 4.5 runs above the venue-adjusted league baseline of 10.5 runs, parking the number deep in the right tail of typical scoring outcomes.
№ 02Wind is blowing in toward home at 11 mph at first pitch, which cuts into carry on balls put in the air.
№ 03Brandon Sproat's xERA of 5.46 sits below his 6.17 surface ERA, suggesting his contact quality has been tracking a bit better than the runs allowed.
№ 04The home side is missing Jacob Wilson, Bryson McArn, and Denzel Clarke on the injured list, thinning out the lineup at the margins.
№ 05Home offense carries a 7-day form score of -20 and is averaging 5.7 runs per game over that window, a step below what a 15 implies.
§ 01The analysis
The starting point is the number itself. A total of 15 sits 4.5 runs above the venue-adjusted league baseline of 10.5, which is a steep ask before anything else gets layered in. Wind blowing in toward home at 11 mph trims carry, and the home lineup is down Jacob Wilson, Bryson McArn, and Denzel Clarke, while the away side is missing Brandon Lockridge. Home offense has been cold over the last week with a -20 form score and 5.7 runs per game, and Sproat's 5.46 xERA hints his contact quality is a touch better than his 6.17 ERA. The counters are real. Sproat's ERA, a 5.36 FIP, and a worsening recent trend with a 7.71 ERA across his last two starts give the home bats a soft target, the away offense is hot at 8.1 runs per game on a 58 form score, Trevor Megill's 4.70 ERA leaves the late innings exposed, and Sutter Health Park has played as a 1.17 run environment with 94°F at first pitch. Even with that, clearing 15 is a tall order.
§ 02The call
The market is pricing under 15 at an implied 54.3%. Our model lands at 68.0%, leaving 13.7% of edge. A total this far above the venue-adjusted baseline, wind cutting in at 11 mph, a cold and injury-thinned home lineup, and Sproat's xERA softening the surface ERA all do enough to outweigh the hot away bats, the warm air, and the park's run environment. The gap between fair and market is wide enough to act on. Take the under 15.
Final resultWINUnder 15 -119 · -119 Graded Jun 11, 2026