№ 01Shota Imanaga's 4.55 FIP tells the story the surface stats hide, with defense-independent peripherals suggesting a hittable version of the lefty on the mound.
№ 02Imanaga's swinging-strike and K rates have both dipped below his own baseline this year, giving Clemens more chances to put the ball in play.
№ 03Clemens brings a .243 season average and a 0.80 OPS across 309 at-bats, with 9 hits in his last 39 trips over the previous 10 games.
№ 04The risk sits in the matchup profile: Clemens owns just a .240 xwOBA against left-handed four-seamers over the past 30 days across 11 plate appearances.
№ 05Wind blowing in at 9 mph and Wrigley's 0.94 run environment cap the ceiling, alongside Imanaga's .185 mark allowed to lefties in 124 matchups.
§ 01The analysis
The number that pushes this ticket is Shota Imanaga's 4.55 FIP, a defense-independent read that undercuts the tidier surface stats he carries into this start. Backing it up, both his swinging-strike rate and his 24.6% strikeout rate have slipped below his own baseline this season, which points to more contact opportunities across the lineup. That matters for Kody Clemens, who is hitting .243 on the year with a 0.80 OPS across 309 at-bats and has banked 9 hits in 39 at-bats over his last 10 games. Even the split profile has a working floor, with a 0.75 OPS in 77 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Imanaga's broader body of work still shows a 3.74 xERA over 108.0 innings, so this is not a pitcher falling apart, just one whose peripherals have drifted enough to make a single total base a reasonable ask. Wrigley in daylight rounds out the setting, with a 0.95 home run factor for left-handed hitters this year adding modest support without carrying the pick on its own.
§ 02The call
The honest counter is real. Clemens has posted just a .240 xwOBA against left-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days on 11 plate appearances, and Imanaga has held lefties to a .185 average across 124 matchups this season. Wind is blowing in toward home at 9 mph at first pitch, and Wrigley carries a 0.94 run environment on the year, both trimming the offensive ceiling. The bet leans on Imanaga's peripherals catching up to him and Clemens finding one knock in a full day's work at -143.
Final resultLOSSKody Clemens OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -143 Graded Jul 19, 2026