№ 01Will Warren brings a 4.59 xERA across 102.0 innings into Wrigley, and Conforto gets to attack that profile with a fastball-heavy pitcher on the mound.
№ 02Warren throws 65.7% fastballs, and Conforto owns a .364 xwOBA against fastballs across 110 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Over Warren's last 5 starts he has been trending down, running a 6.75 FIP across 23.0 innings with swinging-strike and K rates below his baseline.
№ 04Conditions favor the hitter with wind blowing out to left at 11 mph and a first-pitch temperature of 81°F carrying the ball further.
№ 05The risk is Conforto sitting on 4 hits in 21 at-bats over his last 10 games and a 0.0% barrel rate on righty four-seamers over 30 days.
§ 01The analysis
The lead here is the arm. Will Warren carries a 4.59 xERA across 102.0 innings, and his fastball-heavy mix lines up directly with what Conforto handles best. Warren throws 65.7% fastballs, and Conforto's bat has produced a .364 xwOBA on fastballs over 110 plate appearances this season. That matchup gets more inviting when you factor in Warren's recent form: over his last 5 starts he has clearly faded, posting a 6.75 FIP across 23.0 innings while his swinging-strike and K rates have both dipped under his own baseline. His season FIP of 4.07 and 23.2% strikeout rate now look like the ceiling rather than the current version. The Wrigley conditions add to the case, with wind blowing out to left at 11 mph at first pitch and an 81°F temperature that helps balls carry, all in daylight. For broader context, Conforto is hitting .236 on the season with a 0.80 OPS, and holds a 0.75 OPS in 183 plate appearances versus right-handers. Wrigley's park factor for left-handed home runs sits at 0.95, and the venue's overall run environment is 0.94.
§ 02The call
The honest counter is that Conforto has been quiet, with 4 hits in 21 at-bats over his last 10 games and a 0.0% barrel rate against right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days across 16 plate appearances. Wrigley's 0.94 run environment doesn't do him any favors either. The bet is that a fading fastball-heavy starter, wind blowing out to left at 11 mph, and 81°F air matter more than a two-week cold stretch. At +164 on over 1.5 total bases, the price pays for the matchup.
Final resultLOSSMichael Conforto OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +164 Graded Jul 31, 2026