№ 01Justin Crawford has 7 hits in 23 at-bats over his last 10 games, keeping him in a rhythm that lines up well with clearing a single-hit threshold.
№ 02Against right-handed sinkers this season, Crawford hits .294 across 37 plate appearances and whiffs on just 8%, a plus contact profile for this matchup.
№ 03Cam Schlittler's 4.53 FIP over his last 5 starts spanning 28.0 innings suggests his run prevention has been running hotter than the underlying stuff.
№ 04The counter: Schlittler owns a 3.03 xERA over 123.0 innings, a 2.62 FIP, and has held left-handed hitters to a .197 average across 295 matchups.
№ 05Schlittler throws 90.8% fastballs and Crawford posts a .276 xwOBA against fastballs over 169 plate appearances, a stylistic clash working against the over.
§ 01The analysis
The lead here is contact. Justin Crawford has 7 hits in 23 at-bats over his last 10 games, and the plate skills backing that run travel into this matchup. Against right-handed sinkers this season, Crawford is hitting .294 across 37 plate appearances with just an 8% whiff rate, a profile built to put the ball in play often enough to clear a single-hit line. There's also a regression angle on the arm across the box. Cam Schlittler has posted a 4.53 FIP over his last 5 starts across 28.0 innings, meaning his recent run prevention has outpaced the underlying contact he's allowing. Context fills in around the edges: Crawford is hitting .257 on the season across 276 at-bats with a 0.65 OPS.267 against righties, and Citizens Bank Park carries a 1.02 run environment. His team is 1-3 in the last 5 meetings with this opponent, so the head-to-head hasn't been kind, but the individual matchup traits are pointing the right way for a single knock at -134.
§ 02The call
The risk is real and it's Schlittler's full-season resume. His 3.03 xERA over 123.0 innings and 2.62 FIP say the stuff plays, and he's held left-handed batters to a .197 average across 295 matchups while striking out 29.0% of the league. Style matters too: he throws 90.8% fastballs, and Crawford's .276 xwOBA against fastballs over 169 plate appearances is nothing special. The bet leans on the sinker split, the recent bat, and the gap between Schlittler's headline numbers and his 4.53 FIP over the last 28.0 innings.
Final resultLOSSJustin Crawford OVER 0.5 Hits · -134 Graded Jul 25, 2026