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New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Over 7 -125
Line
-125
Bet type
Game
Status
LOSS
CLV
+6.4%
Key points · 5
  1. № 01Griffin Jax's 5.37 xERA across 60.0 innings sits 1.92 runs above his 3.45 ERA, the kind of gap that says his run prevention is due to regress.
  2. № 02Jax's last 5 starts trend the wrong way, moving from a 0.00 ERA in the earlier outings to a 2.45 ERA in the most recent ones, with a 4.55 FIP underneath.
  3. № 03Cam Schlittler owns a 2.08 ERA but a 3.14 xERA, and his last 5 have jumped from 1.42 to 6.00 as the underlying numbers catch up.
  4. № 04The home lineup is averaging 6.0 runs per game over the last 7 days and carries a .352 xwOBA against fastballs across 1912 plate appearances, matching Jax's 42.9% fastball rate.
  5. № 05Umpire Emil Jimenez's games have averaged 11.5 combined runs this season, and the away bullpen is already 269 pitches deep over the last three days.

§ 01The analysis

The lead here is Griffin Jax. A 3.45 ERA looks fine on the surface, but his 5.37 xERA across 60.0 innings tells a different story, a 1.92-run gap that flags regression, and his 4.55 FIP agrees. The last five starts back it up, moving from a 0.00 ERA in the earlier outings to a 2.45 ERA more recently. He's striking out 23.3% and leaning on his fastball 42.9% of the time into a lineup posting a .352 xwOBA against heaters across 1912 plate appearances and trending up versus right-handed pitching over 645 PA. That home offense is also averaging 6.0 runs per game over the last week. Cam Schlittler carries a 2.08 ERA but a 3.14 xERA, and his last five have swung from 1.42 to 6.00. The away bullpen behind him is 269 pitches deep across the last three days. Behind the plate, Emil Jimenez's games average 11.5 combined runs this season, and the home catcher is losing 0.7 called strikes per 100 taken pitches versus league baseline.

§ 02The call

The risk is real. Schlittler still runs a 3.14 xERA over 104.0 innings with a 2.59 FIP and a 29.0% strikeout rate, Tropicana Field grades out as a 0.92 run environment, and both staffs rank top-third in team ERA at 6 of 30 and 2 of 30. Bryan Baker's 1.83 ERA anchors the home pen, and the away offense is scuffling at 3.4 runs per game over the last 7 days without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. The Jax regression case and the umpire profile still push this to over 7 at -125.

Final resultLOSSOver 7 -125 · -125
Graded Jul 7, 2026

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